2023—2025年西安市成分血临床供应量预测研究  

Prediction of the clinical supply of blood components in Xi′an City from 2023 to 2025

作　　者：张铃浩 王锦[1] 姚蓓 褚晓月 孙振东[1] 马超锋 Zhang Linghao;Wang Jin;Yao Bei;Chu Xiaoyue;Sun Zhendong;Ma Chaofeng(Shaanxi Provincial Blood Center,Xi′an Central Blood Station,Xi′an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省血液中心西安市中心血站,西安710061

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2024年第8期1213-1218,共6页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：西安英才计划-菁英(创新人才)(XAYC220046);陕西省卫生健康委员会科技项目(2022D050)。

摘　　要：目的构建预测模型对2023—2025年西安市成分血临床供应量进行预测。方法基于2013年1月—2022年12月陕西省血液中心血液管理信息系统的成分血供血量资料,采用灰色预测模型和指数曲线拟合模型构建预测模型,依据模型相关指标的误差参数确定最优预测模型,对2023—2025年西安市成分血供应量进行预测。结果指数曲线拟合模型预测西安市悬浮红细胞、血小板和冷沉淀供应量的拟合方程分别为x^(1)(t+1)=1.16e^(0.04t)、x^(1)(t+1)=1.04e^(0.12t)、x^(1)(t+1)=1.01e^(1.10t),其平均绝对误差(平均相对误差)分别为10488.7(0.05%)、2114.9(0.08%)和3089.6(0.07%),均低于灰色预测模型[分别为10488.7(3.44%)、2152.78(8.20%)和3441.35(7.92%)]。指数曲线拟合模型预测2023—2025年西安市成分血临床供应量呈逐年上升趋势,至2025年西安市悬浮红细胞、血小板、冷沉淀临床供应量分别升至409467 U、69818治疗量和94724 U。结论指数曲线拟合模型可较好预测西安市成分血临床供应量。Objective To construct a prediction model for the clinical supply of blood components in Xi′an City from 2023 to 2025.Methods Based on the blood supply data of the Blood Management Information System of Shaanxi Provincial Blood Center from January 2013 to December 2022,a gray prediction model and an exponential curve fitting model were used to construct the prediction model,and the optimal prediction model was determined according to the error parameters of the relevant indicators of the model.The supply of blood components in Xi′an from 2023 to 2025 was predicted.Results The fitting equations of the exponential curve fitting model to predict the supply of suspended red blood cells,platelets and cryoprecipitate in Xi′an were,x^(1)(t+1)=1.16e^(0.04t),x^(1)(t+1)=1.04e^(0.12t)andx^(1)(t+1)=1.01e^(1.10t),respectively.The mean absolute errors(mean relative errors)of the exponential curve fitting model in predicting the supply of suspended red blood cells,platelets and cryoprecipitate in Xi′an were 10488.7(0.05%),2114.9(0.08%)and 3089.6(0.07%),respectively,which were lower than those of the gray prediction model,about 10488.7(3.44%),2152.78(8.20%)and 3441.35(7.92%),respectively.The exponential curve fitting model predicted that the clinical supply of blood components in Xi′an would increase year by year from 2023 to 2025,and the clinical supply of suspended red blood cells,platelets,and cryoprecipitate in Xi′an would increase to 409467 U,69818 therapeutic volume and 94724 U,respectively by 2025.Conclusion The exponential curve fitting model can make a good prediction of the clinical supply of blood components in Xi′an City.

关 键 词：模型 统计学 预测 血液成分输血 卫生服务研究 

分 类 号：R197.6[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]