RCEP双向直接投资网络韧性演化及其效应  

Resilience Evolution and Effects of Two-way Direct Investment Network in RCEP Member Countries

作　　者：程成[1] 王云龙[1] 蒋云英 CHENG Cheng;WANG Yunlong;JIANG Yunying(School of Economics,Guangxi University,Nanning 530000,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学经济学院,中国广西南宁530000

出　　处：《经济地理》2024年第7期33-44,共12页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AJY015);广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题(21FYJ040);教育部长江学者和创新团队“中国—东盟区域发展”计划(IRT_17R27)。

摘　　要：文章以RCEP15个成员国为研究对象,探讨RCEP双向直接投资网络生长特征、网络韧性演化过程和国别节点韧性格局,并运用随机指数图模型分析了网络韧性演化效应。结果表明:①RCEP双向直接投资网络生长相对立体且异配性特征显著,完备且多元的成员国类型组成是其网络韧性演化的关键。②整体投资网络发展具有明显的适应性演进特征,具体表现出以扩大投资规模来恢复与发展、以加强资金同步来调整与抵御的适应发展历程,最终呈现“核心强韧—边缘疏松”的网络韧性结构。③RCEP区域内“自我加速”效应与第三方效应共同内生驱动投资网络韧性演化;市场开放程度、制度环境和劳动力质量等为主要外生驱动力,国家身份认同、税负差异以及高科技出口差异为辅助外生驱动力;双边贸易协定关系、殖民历史关系正向耦合嵌入促进投资韧性演化,而不满足经济发展要求的低效投资关系将持续受到地理距离的限制。Taking 15 RCEP member countries as the research objects,this article discusses the growth characteristics of a two-way direct investment network between RCEP member countries,the evolution process of their network resilience and their resilience pattern of national nodes.It uses the exponential random graph models(ERGM)to analyze the evolution effects of network resilience.The results show that:1)The growth of the two-way direct investment network between RCEP member countries is relatively stereoscopic and the characteristics of heterogeneity are significant.The complete and diverse composition of member countries is the endowment advantage of RCEP,which is the key to the evolution of the network resilience.2)The development of the overall investment network has obvious characteristics of adaptive evolution,which specifically shows the adaptive development process of restoring and developing by expanding the investment scale,adjusting and resisting by strengthening the synchronization of funds,and finally presents the network resilience structure of"strong core-loose edge".3)The"self-accelerating"effect of investment accumulation within the RCEP area,together with third-party effects,endogenously drives the evolution of the investment network resilience.Countries with competitive advantages such as open market,institutional environment,and labor quality have significant investment tendency,which is the main exogenous driving force for the evolution of investment resilience.In addition,national identity,tax burden differences and high-tech export differences as auxiliary exogenous driving forces play a role in the coordination of investment resilience.Bilateral trade agreement relationships and colonial historical relationships are positively coupled and embedded to influence the evolution of investment resilience,while inefficient investment relations that do not meet the requirements of economic development or fail to pass the test of international market will continue to be limited by geographical distance.

关 键 词：区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP) 直接投资 网络韧性演化 核心—边缘结构 市场开放度 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F119.9[经济管理—国际贸易]