人口收缩背景下东北地区交通供给水平时空分异及影响机制  

Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Transportation Supply Level and Its Influencing Mechanism in Northeast China under the Background of Population Shrinkage

作　　者：吴函纯 刘艳军 付慧 金雨 孙宏日 柳力玮 WU Hanchun;LIU Yanjun;FU Hui;JIN Yu;SUN Hongri;LIU Liwei(School of Geographical Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,Jilin,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,中国吉林长春130024

出　　处：《经济地理》2024年第7期45-55,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171191、41771172、42201211)。

摘　　要：文章在识别东北地区人口增长与收缩区域、多维评价区域交通供给水平的基础上,构建了东北地区交通供给水平变化影响机制的综合分析框架,探讨了人口收缩背景下,东北地区交通供给水平的区域分异及时空演变特征,分析了人口增长与收缩对交通供给水平变化的作用机制。结果表明:①2013—2020年东北地区人口收缩区域交通供给水平始终显著高于增长区域,增长区域交通供给不足现象凸显且程度加剧,轻度收缩区域交通供给趋于适度,重度收缩区域交通供给错配现象严重,且趋向供给过剩。②人口年均变化率增加促进收缩区域交通供给水平提高,但对增长区域影响不显著;良好的自然条件、较高的公共服务水平促进东北地区交通供给水平提高;财政能力对交通供给水平提高具有抑制作用;产业发展对交通供给水平提高的影响存在区域差异;区域属性中,区域面积增加抑制收缩区域交通供给水平提高,区位条件产生的影响存在区域差异。③产业快速发展引起的区域人口与要素流动需求增加是增长区域交通供给不足且程度加剧的主要原因,而对于人口收缩区域,其交通供给水平变化则主要是人口流失、产业发展滞缓等引起的交通需求缩减所致。On the basis of identifying the population growing and shrinking areas in Northeast China,and evaluating the transportation supply level in multiple dimensions,this paper conducts a comprehensive analysis framework of the influencing mechanism of transportation supply level change.Based on this framework,it discusses the regional differentiation and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of transportation supply level in Northeast China under the background of population shrinkage,and explores the influencing mechanism of population growth and shrinkage on the change of transportation supply level.The results indicate that:1)From 2013 to 2020,the transportation supply level in population shrinking areas of Northeast China was always significantly higher than that in population growing areas.The transportation supply shortage was prominent and intensified in population growing areas,the transportation supply tended to be moderate in slight shrinking areas,and that in severe shrinking areas was seriously mismatched and tended to be oversupplied.2)The increase of the average annual population change rate promotes the improvement of the transportation supply level in population shrinking areas,but has no significant effect on population growing areas.Good natural conditions and high public service level promote the improvement of the transportation supply level in Northeast China,while financial capacity is manifested as a restraining effect.There are regional differences in the impact of industrial development on the improvement of the transportation supply level.The increase of regional area inhibits the increase of the transportation supply level in population shrinking areas,while the influence of regional conditions also has regional difference.3)The increase in regional population and factor flow demand caused by rapid industrial development is the main reason for the shortage and degree aggravation of the transportation supply in population growing areas.The change of the transportation supply level is mainl

关 键 词：人口收缩 交通供给水平 产业发展 公共服务 影响机制 东北地区 

分 类 号：F511.99[经济管理—产业经济]