生育政策调整、延迟退休与社会基本养老保险基金可持续性  

Maternity Policy Adjustment,Delayed Retirement and Sustainability of Social Basic Pension Insurance Fund

作　　者：丁德臣 李阳 DING Dechen;LI Yang(School of Insurance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学保险学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2024年第4期60-72,共13页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“时间序列数据变点的检测、形成机理及其在金融风险预警中的应用研究”(22BTJ061)。

摘　　要：为应对人口老龄化对社会基本养老保险基金可持续性日益加深的不利影响,通过对我国未来人口情况进行预测和构建养老保险基金收支模型,具体测算“三孩”政策及延迟退休对社会基本养老保险基金可持续性的影响.研究表明:“三孩”政策和延迟退休年龄是我国应对老龄化危机和缓解养老保险基金支付压力的有效政策工具,且两者能够互相补充,两项改革同时存在的效果明显优于单项政策的效果.因此,应加速完善“三孩”生育政策配套制度、尽快实施渐进式延迟退休政策和全力推进社会基本养老保险实现全国统筹.To cope with the adverse effects of population aging on the sustainability of social basic pension insurance funds,this study specifically calculates the impact of the“three children”policy and delayed retirement on the sustainability of the social basic pension insurance funds by predicting China future population situation and constructing a pension insurance fund income-expenditure model.The research results show that the“three children”policy and delayed retirement age are effective policy tools for China to cope with population aging crisis and alleviate the payment pressure of the pension insurance fund with the two policies complementing each other,and the effect of two reforms coexisting is significantly better than that of a single policy.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the supporting systems for the“three children”maternity policy,implement the gradual delayed retirement policy as soon as possible,and fully promote social basic pension insurance to achieve national pooling.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 生育政策调整 延迟退休 社会基本养老保险基金 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]