The Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Spatio-temporal Dynamic Evolution of Tourism Ecological Security in the Silk Road Economic Belt  

丝绸之路经济带旅游生态安全时空动态演变及驱动因素研究

作　　者：WANG Shu LIU Fenglian YANG Lei CAI Wei 王舒;刘凤莲;杨磊;蔡巍(云南财经大学国土资源与持续发展研究所,昆明650221;云南财经大学经济研究院,昆明650221)

机构地区：[1]Institute of Land&Resources and Sustainable Development,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China [2]Institute of Economic Research,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2024年第4期1054-1067,共14页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The Scientific Research Fund Project of Yunnan Education Department(2021J0592);The Yunnan University of Finance and EconomicsProgramme(2022D13);The Graduate Student Innovation Fund Project of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics(2022YUFEYC10).

摘　　要：The exploration of ecological safety in tourism sites can provide a concrete path for sustainable tourism development in a region.Based on the“Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response”(DPSIR)model,we constructed an index system for the evaluation of tourism ecological security(TES)in the Silk Road Economic Belt(SREB)from 2005 to 2020.This index system was used to explore the characteristics of spatial and temporal dynamic evolution with the help of entropy weight TOPSIS method,dynamic index of TES and Markov probability transfer matrix,and a standard deviational ellipse(SDE)model and GM(1,1)model were constructed for spatial pattern analysis and prediction.The results indicate four key aspects of this system.(1)In terms of spatiotemporal evolution,the tourism ecological safety index(TESI)of the SREB increased,the TES levels of the northwestern and southwestern provinces and cities differed significantly,and the quality conditions of TES in the southwestern provinces and cities were better than in the northwest.(2)In terms of dynamic evolutionary characteristics,the speed of change at each level of the SREB was slow,but the level of TES has improved.The TES level has not shifted by leaps and bounds,and the shifts in the level type show“path dependence”and“self-locking”effects.(3)In terms of spatial and temporal distribution patterns,the spatial pattern of TES in the SREB is a“northwest-southeast”movement trend,and the spatial distribution appeared as“aggregation”from 2005 to 2020.The prediction results show that the center of gravity of TES in the SREB will shift to the southeast from 2025 to 2035,and the spatial spillover effect will be reduced.(4)In terms of driving factors,the number of star-rated hotels,and the amounts of industrial wastewater emissions,tourism foreign exchange earnings,forest coverage,and other parameters are the key factors affecting TES,and the booming tourism industry requires the interconnection and interpenetration of various factors.The results of this study can provide探索旅游地的生态安全可以为该地区旅游可持续发展提供具体路径。基于DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)模型构建2005-2020年丝绸之路经济带旅游生态安全评价指标体系;借助熵权TOPSIS法、旅游生态安全动态指数、马尔科夫概率转移矩阵探索时空动态演变特征;构建标准差椭圆模型、GM(1,1)模型进行空间格局分析及预测;采用地理探测器识别旅游生态安全驱动因素。研究发现:(1)时空演变上,丝绸之路经济带旅游生态安全系数上升;西北、西南省市旅游生态安全水平差异显著,西南省市旅游生态安全质量状况好于西北省份;(2)动态演变特征上,丝绸之路经济带各等级变化速度较慢,但旅游生态安全水平有所提升。旅游生态安全等级未发生跳跃式转移的情况,等级类型转移具有“路径依赖”与“自我锁定”效应;(3)时空分布格局上,2005-2020年,丝绸之路经济带旅游生态安全空间格局呈“西北-东南”的运动趋势,空间分布范围为“聚集”。预测结果显示:2025-2035年丝绸之路经济带旅游生态安全重心将向东南方向偏移,空间溢出效应降低;(4)驱动因素上,星级饭店数、工业废水排放量、旅游外汇收入、森林覆盖率等是影响旅游生态安全的关键因素,旅游业的蓬勃发展需要多种因素相互联系和相互渗透。研究结果可为旅游业发展和生态环境保护提供参考借鉴。

关 键 词：tourism ecological security spatial-temporal evolution DRIVERS Geo-detector the Silk Road Economic Belt 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] X322[经济管理—产业经济]