三孩政策实施前后山东某县出生人数和三孩及以上孩次占比研究  

The number of births and the proportion of births of the third child and above in a county in Shandong before and after the implementation of the three-child policy

作　　者：谭小玉 赵立华[3] 周玉博[1,2,4] 金彩芹 刘扬 郑爱妮[3] 李爱红 李宏田 刘建蒙[1,2,4,5] TAN Xiaoyu;ZHAO Lihua;ZHOU Yubo;JIN Caiqin;LIU Yang;ZHENG Aini;LI Aihong;LI Hongtian;LIU Jianmeng(Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health,Peking University,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学生育健康研究所/国家卫生健康委员会生育健康重点实验室,100191 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系 [3]山东省桓台县妇幼保健院 [4]北京大学第三医院女性生育力促进全国重点实验室 [5]北京大学人工智能研究院智慧公众健康研究中心

出　　处：《中国生育健康杂志》2024年第5期408-415,共8页Chinese Journal of Reproductive Health

基　　金：中华预防医学会生殖保存和生育力保护研究项目资助(No.837);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(BMU2021RCZX029)。

摘　　要：目的描述2019年下半年至2023年上半年山东某县出生人数和孩次构成情况,分析三孩政策对出生人数和三孩及以上孩次占比的影响。方法依托2019年7月至2023年6月山东某县分娩登记常规统计资料,获取新生儿出生日期、母亲产次等数据,将母亲产次作为新生儿孩次的近似指标。依据三孩政策出台时间并参考既往研究将2019年7月至2022年2月定义为基线期,2022年3月至2023年6月定义为三孩政策效应期,采用中断时间序列模型研究三孩政策对月度出生人数和月度三孩及以上孩次占比的影响。结果2019年7月至2023年6月研究地区出生人数为26642人;基线期出生人数为18007人,月均出生人数为562.72人;三孩政策效应期出生人数为8635人,月均出生人数为539.69人。中断时间序列分析显示,研究地区总的出生人数在基线期内月均减少4.56人(P=0.094);三孩政策生效之初出生人数瞬时减少91.19人(P=0.075),随后政策效应期内月均增加8.78人(P=0.075)。但上述变化均不具有统计学意义。研究期间共出生一孩11956人,二孩11733人,三孩及以上2128人;三孩及以上孩次占比为8.24%,其中基线期为7.77%,三孩政策效应期为9.18%。中断时间序列分析显示,基线期内三孩及以上孩次占比月均增加0.05个百分点(P=0.048);三孩政策生效之初瞬时减少0.64个百分点(P=0.417),随后政策效应期内月均增加0.14个百分点(P=0.200),三孩政策生效后三孩及以上孩次占比瞬时水平及随后趋势变化不具有统计学意义。结论三孩政策实施后研究地区总的出生人数未见明显变化,三孩及以上孩次占比也未见显著增加,提示三孩政策的实施在短期内对研究地区育龄妇女的生育行为无显著影响。Objective To describe the number of births and the composition of child-orders in a county in Shandong from the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2023,and to analyze the impact of the three-child policy on the number of births and the proportion of births of the third child and above.Methods Based on the regular statistic data of births registration in a county in Shandong from July 2019 to June 2023,the variables including the newborn′s birth date and mother′s parity were obtained;the mother′s parity was used as the approximate index of the newborn′s child-order.Considering the proposal time of the three-child policy and referring to previous studies,the baseline period was defined as from July 2019 to February 2022,and the three-child policy effect period was defined as from March 2022 to June 2023.Interrupted time series models were used to study the impact of the three-child policy on the monthly number of births and the monthly proportion of births of the third child and above.Results The number of births was 26642 in the research area from July 2019 to June 2023;the number of births in the baseline period was 18007,with a monthly average of 562.72;and the total number of births was 8635 in the three-child policy effect period,with a monthly average of 539.69.The interrupted time series analysis showed that the overall number of births decreased by an average of 4.56 per month during the baseline period(P=0.094).At the beginning of the three-child policy coming into effect,the total number of births decreased by 91.19 instantaneously(P=0.075),followed by an average monthly increase of 8.78(P=0.075)during the policy effect period.However,none of these changes were statistically significant.There were 11956 births of the first child,11733 births of the second child,and 2128 births of the third child and above during the study;the proportion of births of the third child and above was 8.24%,with 7.77%during the baseline period and 9.18%during the period of the three-child policy effect period.The

关 键 词：三孩政策 出生人数 孩次占比 中断时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]