基于Mann-Kendall的广东省长效避孕服务利用和人工流产的趋势与突变分析  

Trend and mutation analysis of long-acting contraceptive service utilization and induced abortion in Guangdong province Based on Mann-Kendall Test

作　　者：马远珠[1] 吴颖芳 武丽[3] 夏建红[1] 赵庆国 吴云涛[5] 朱颖贤 MA Yuanzhu;WU Yingfang;WU Li;XIA Jianhong;ZHAO Qingguo;WU Yuntao;ZHU Yingxian(Department of Women Health Care,Guangdong Women and Children Hospital,Guangzhou,511442,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省妇幼保健院妇女保健部,广州511442 [2]广州医科大学附属妇女儿童医疗中心妇女保健部,510623 [3]广东省妇幼保健院科教科,广州511442 [4]广东省计划生育专科医院流行病学室,广州510600 [5]广东省妇幼保健院保健部,广州511442 [6]广东省妇幼保健院院长室,广州511442

出　　处：《中国生育健康杂志》2024年第5期416-423,共8页Chinese Journal of Reproductive Health

基　　金：广东省医学科研基金项目(C2022038)。

摘　　要：目的了解广东省长效避孕服务利用和人工流产变化趋势,为制定有效的生殖保健服务策略,提高妇女生殖健康提供依据。方法采用Mann-Kendall检验法对2008—2021年广东省长效避孕服务利用总例数、各种长效避孕方法例数与占比、人工流产例数、人工流产活产比进行趋势和突变分析。结果2008—2021年广东省长效避孕服务利用总例数呈现下降趋势,长效不可逆避孕方法例数呈先增后降的趋势、长效可逆避孕方法例数呈现下降趋势;这三个指标突变点分别出现在2016、2018、2014年。各种长效避孕方法服务利用上,放置宫内节育器术占67.3%,输卵管绝育术占29.1%,输精管绝育术占3.5%,放置皮下填埋剂术占0.1%。全省人工流产例数呈下降趋势,突变点出现在2018年;人工流产活产比相对稳定,年均人工流产活产比为76.5%。从区域层面看,全省与珠三角地区长效可逆避孕方法例数和人工流产例数的变化趋势呈现出平行关系,粤东、粤西和粤北地区长效可逆避孕方法例数变化趋势与人工流产例数变化趋势的关联各异。结论广东省放置宫内节育器术在长效避孕方法中占主导地位,输卵管绝育术次之,长效避孕责任主要由女性群体承担。区域间长效可逆避孕方法与人工流产变化趋势呈现出不同的关系,有必要深入了解导致这些地区差异的因素,促进不同区域避孕服务的有效落实,避免发生意外妊娠。此外,建议地区积极探讨将避孕服务与妇女全生命周期服务整合,提高妇女生殖健康水平。Objective To understand the trend of long-acting contraceptive service utilization and induced abortion in Guangdong Province,and to provide basis for formulating effective reproductive health care service strategy and improving women′s reproductive health.Methods Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze trends and mutations of the total number of long-acting contraceptive service utilization,the number and proportion of various long-acting contraceptive methods,the number of induced abortion and induced abortion and live birth ratio in Guangdong province from 2008 to 2021.Results From 2008 to 2021,the total number of long-acting contraceptive service utilization showed a downward trend,the number of long-acting irreversible contraceptive methods showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend,while the number of long-acting reversible contraceptive methods showed a declining trend.The mutation points of the total number of long-acting contraceptive service utilization,irreversible contraceptive methods and reversible contraceptive services methods appeared in 2016,2018 and 2014,respectively.In terms of the proportion of various long-acting contraceptive methods,intrauterine device,female sterilization,male sterilization and subcutaneous implant accounted for 67.3%,29.1%,3.5%and 0.1%,respectively.The number of induced abortion in Guangdong province showed a decreasing trend.The mutation point of induced abortion appeared in 2018,and induced abortion and live birth ratio was relatively stable,with an average annual ratio of 76.5%.It showed a parallel relationship between the trend line of the number of long-acting reversible contraceptive methods and that of number of induced abortion in Guangdong Province and the Pearl River Delta,while the relationships in the other regions beyond Pearl River Delta regions varied.Conclusion In Guangdong Province,intrauterine device was the dominant long-acting contraceptive method,followed by was female sterilization.The responsibility for long-acting contraception prim

关 键 词：长效避孕 人工流产 曼-肯德尔 趋势分析 突变检验 

分 类 号：R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健] R71[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]