基于信息扩散理论的丹东蓝莓成熟期高温日灼风险分析  

Risk Analysis of High Temperature Sunburn in Mature Stage of Dandong Blueberry Based on Information Diffusion Theory

作　　者：董海涛 单璐璐 孟鑫 李如楠 房一禾[2] DONG Haitao;SHAN Lulu;MENG Xin;LI Runan;FANG Yihe(Dandong City Bureau of Meteorology,Dandong,Liaoning 118000;Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110166)

机构地区：[1]丹东市气象局,辽宁丹东118000 [2]沈阳区域气候中心,沈阳110166

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第22期110-117,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：丹东市指导性科技计划项目“蓝莓气象灾害风险预警研究与应用”(DD2023037)。

摘　　要：利用1991—2020年丹东地区4个站点蓝莓成熟期的气象资料,将蓝莓成熟期日最高气温≥32℃持续3d及以上作为高温日灼灾害风险指标,综合考虑频次和持续时间,制定轻度、中度、重度高温日灼灾害风险等级,通过灾害发生次数和站次比分析蓝莓高温日灼灾害风险的变化规律,基于信息扩散理论评估高温日灼灾害风险概率。结果表明,30a间丹东地区蓝莓整个成熟期高温日灼灾害风险影响呈加重趋势,高温日灼发生次数呈现增多趋势,其中凤城地区增多最为显著,高温日灼灾害发生次数倾向率为0.236次/10a(P<0.01)。30a间中熟期发生高温日灼灾害的风险较低,轻度和中度高温日灼灾害的风险概率均在十年一遇以下(≤10%),东港地区未出灾害风险;高温日灼灾害风险主要集中在晚熟期,轻度灾害风险发生概率在接近或十年一遇以上(≥10%)。凤城区是发生高温日灼灾害的高风险区,受灾范围广、频次高、程度重,轻度和重度高温日灼灾害风险发生概率均在十年一遇以上(≥10%)。Based on the meteorological data of blueberry ripening period from 1991 to 2020 of four stations in Dandong area,the maximum daily temperature of blueberry ripening period≥32℃lasting for 3 days and above was taken as the index of high temperature sunburn disaster.Considering the frequency and duration,the degree of high temperature sunburn disaster was established,and the regularity of high temperature sunburn disaster was analyzed,risk probability of high temperature sunburn disaster was evaluated based on information diffusion theory.The results showed that the effects of high temperature sunburn on blueberries in Dandong area were aggravated and the number of sunburn increased during the whole ripening period in 30 years,especially in Fengcheng area,the tendency rate of high temperature sunburn was 0.236 times/10 a(P<0.01).The risk of high temperature sunburn was low in the middle maturity period of 30 years,and the risk probability of mild and moderate high temperature sunburn was less than once in 10 years(≤10%),and no disaster occurred in Donggang area,the probability of occurrence of minor disasters was close to or more than once in 10 years(≥10%).Fengcheng district was a high risk area of high temperature sunburn disaster.The disaster area was wide,the frequency was high and the degree was heavy.The probabilities of light and severe high temperature sunburn disaster were all more than once in 10 years(≥10%).The results of the study obtained the risk probability and the law of recurrence period of different levels of high temperature sunburn disaster in each site,which provided a reference for scientific response to high temperature sunburn disaster in blueberry mature period.

关 键 词：蓝莓 成熟期 高温日灼 信息扩散理论 风险概率 气象资料 风险评估 重现期 信息扩散理论 丹东地区 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]