基于多指标融合的土石坝渗流性态监控与分级预警研究  

Research on Safety Monitoring and Multi-level Warning of Earth Dam Seepage Behavior Based on Multi-index Fusion

作　　者：李明 陈斯煜 张晓军 黄昊冉 王雨田 谷艳昌[2,3] LI Ming;CHEN Siyu;ZHANG Xiaojun;HUANG Haoran;WANG Yutian;GU Yanchang(Shanxi Zhanghe Water Group Co.,Ltd.,Changzhi 046021,Shanxi,China;Dam Safety Management Department,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China;Dam Safety Management Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]山西漳河水务集团有限公司,山西长治046021 [2]南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部大坝安全管理中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水力发电》2024年第9期118-122,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52309157,51979175);南京水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(Y722003,Y723002,Y723008,Y724005)。

摘　　要：渗流是反映土石坝运行安全的重要效应量。为服务某土石坝渗流安全监控和预警需求,基于大坝渗压原型监测资料,分别采用置信区间法和典型小概率法拟定大坝渗压水位数学模型监控指标;采用地勘和反演方法确定渗透系数,建立大坝典型断面有限元模型并开展渗流分析计算,拟定大坝渗压水位结构分析监控指标;在此基础上,融合数学模型和结构分析法渗压水位监控指标并进行验证对比,探究并构建了“数据-机理”驱动的大坝渗流性态监控与分级预警方法。经实例分析,验证了提出方法的有效性,以期为大坝渗流监控和工程安全服役提供有效支撑。Seepage is an important indicator reflecting the operation safety of earth dams.To meet the requirements of safety monitoring and early warning for an earth dam,the monitoring indexes for the seepage water level of the earth dam were developed via the confidence interval method and the typical small probability method based on in-situ data collected from the dam monitoring system,respectively.A FEM model of a typical section of the dam was established for computing seepage field and determining the numerical model-based seepage monitoring index,in which,the permeability coefficient was determined by geological exploration and inversion analysis.On this basis,a data-mechanism driven multi-level seepage early warning method was finally established by integrating multiple monitoring indexes of mathematical models and structural analysis method.Through case analysis,the effectiveness of the proposed method was validated,that can provide effective support for the seepage monitoring and safe operation of dams.

关 键 词：土石坝 渗流 监控指标 渗压水位 指标融合 分级预警方法 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]