鲁西南黄泛区耕地格局变化特征及其影响因素  

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Pattern Changes in Yellow River Alluvial Area in Southwest Shandong Province

作　　者：刘知霏 黎家作[2] 李文龙 魏文杰 郭丰凯 张荣华[1] Liu Zhifei;Li Jiazuo;Li Wenlong;Wei Wenjie;Guo Fengkai;Zhang Ronghua(College of Forestry,Shandong Agricultural University,Mountain Tai Forest Ecosystem Research Station of State Forestry,Taian,Shangdong 271018,China;Monitoring Center Station of Soil and Water Conservation,Huaihe River Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Bengbu,Anhui 233001,China;Zibo Center of Forestry Protection and Development,Zibo,Shandong 255000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学林学院,山东泰山森林生态系统国家定位研究站,山东泰安271018 [2]淮河水利委员会淮河流域水土保持监测中心站,安徽蚌埠233001 [3]淄博市林业发展保护中心,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2024年第4期321-329,共9页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：淮河水利委员会科研项目“基于遥感和土壤侵蚀模型的淮河流域重点预防区水土流失监测遥感数据分析”(SBJ-2020-010);山东省自然科学基金项目“基于多源信息融合的土壤侵蚀空间变异性与数字地图制图研究”(ZR2020MD023)。

摘　　要：[目的]探讨鲁西南黄泛区耕地的空间格局、变化特点及其影响因素,为区域耕地保护提供科学依据。[方法]基于2m高分遥感影像,结合野外调查和《菏泽市统计年鉴》,采用遥感解译、重心模型、冷热点分析、地理探测器等方法,分析2019—2022年鲁西南黄泛区耕地空间分布、重心迁移、年际变化特征及影响因素。[结果](1)2019—2022年鲁西南黄泛区耕地面积占区域60%以上,每年均存在耕地流失现象,流失面积呈现逐年递减趋势,郓城县耕地面积减少最多,达18.28 km^(2),鄄城耕地动态度变化最大,达-2.26%;耕地重心整体向东北方向迁移。(2)耕地流出面积高于流入面积,主要流出方向和流入方向均为建设用地和林地,耕地变动最集中的区域主要分布在曹县南部。(3)对耕地变化影响最强的单因子是农村从业人员(X_(5)),最强的双因子交互组合是农村劳动力资源数(X_(4))和城镇居民人均收入(X_(6))。[结论]鲁西南黄泛区2019—2022年耕地流失是经济社会因子为主的多因子综合作用的结果。[Objective] The characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land changes in the Yellow River alluvial area of Southwest Shandong Province were analysed order to provide a scientific basis for regional cultivated land protection.[Methods] Using 2 m high-resolution remote sensing images and data from the ‘Heze statistical yearbook',various methods including remote sensing interpretation,centre of gravity model,cold and hot spot analysis,and geographical detector were used to analyse land change characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land in the Yellow River alluvial area of Southwest Shandong from 2019 to 2022.[Results](1) During 2019—2022,the arable land in the Yellow River alluvial area of Southwest Shandong Province accounts for more than 60% of the area,and there was annual cultivated land loss in the studied region,with a decreasing trend year by year.The arable land area in Yuncheng County decreased the most,reaching 18.28 km^(2),and farmland dynamic attitude in Juancheng County changed the most,reaching-2.26%.The centre of gravity of cultivated land migrated to the Southwest and Northeast of Shandong Province.(2) The outflow area of cultivated land was higher than that of the inflow area,and the main outflow and inflow directions were both construction and forest land.The area with the most concentrated cultivated land change was mainly distributed in the southern part of Caoxian County.(3) The single factors affecting the change in cultivated land were mainly rural employees(X_(5));the two-factor interactive combination was mainly the intersection of the number of rural labour resources(X_(4)) and the per capita income of urban residents(X_(6)).[Conclusion] The loss of cultivated land in the Yellow River alluvial area of Southwest Shandong Province from 2019 to 2022 is the result of the comprehensive effect of multiple factors based on economic and social factors.

关 键 词：耕地 时空变化 地理探测器 鲁西南黄泛区 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]