弱约束性碳减排政策的碳回弹效应研究——基于低碳城市建设的准自然实验  

Carbon Rebound Effect of Weakly Constrained Carbon Emission Reduction Policy:Quasi-Natural Experiments Based on Low-Carbon City Construction

作　　者：宋依纯 朱于珂 高红贵[1] SONG Yi-chun;ZHU Yu-ke;GAO Hong-gui(Economics School,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,武汉430073 [2]湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410205

出　　处：《软科学》2024年第8期121-128,144,共9页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY193、23BGL222);湖南省社会科学基金青年项目(21YBQ079)。

摘　　要：通过构建弱约束性碳减排政策对城市碳回弹效应的理论与实证研究框架,考察低碳城市建设扩大城市碳回弹效应的形成机制,挖掘低碳城市建设抑制城市碳回弹效应的作用路径。研究发现:(1)总体而言,低碳城市建设将提升能源使用效率,通过“替代效应”与“收入效应”扩大城市碳回弹效应,同时也将带动地区经济增长,通过“产出效应”扩大城市碳回弹效应;(2)低碳城市建设可以通过促进低碳技术创新,降低煤炭消费比重,进而抑制城市碳回弹效应,其中通过低碳技术创新产生的抑制效果更为突出;(3)低碳城市建设将通过公众参与型工具与市场激励型工具有效抑制城市碳回弹效应,其中公众参与型工具的抑制效果要优于市场激励型工具。This paper innovatively constructs a theoretical and empirical research framework for weakly constrained carbon emission reduction policy on the urban carbon rebound effect,empirically investigating the formation mechanism of low-carbon city construction that expands the urban carbon rebound effect and exploring the path of low-carbon city construction that inhibits the urban carbon rebound effect.It finds that:(1)Generally speaking,low-carbon city construction will improve energy efficiency,which will expand the urban carbon rebound effect through the"substitution effect"and"income effect",and will also promote regional economic growth,which will expand the urban carbon rebound effect through the"output effect".(2)Low-carbon city construction can promote low-carbon technology innovation,reduce the share of coal consumption,and then significantly inhibit the urban carbon rebound effect,of which the inhibition effect on the urban carbon rebound effect through low-carbon technology innovation is more prominent.(3)Low-carbon city construction will effectively inhibit the urban carbon rebound effect through public participation-type tools and market incentive-type tools,in which the inhibition effect of public participation-type tools is better than that of market incentive-type tools.

关 键 词：弱约束性碳减排政策 低碳城市建设 碳回弹效应 多期DID模型 抑制路径 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]