金融制裁是否遏制了主权财富基金对俄投资?——基于合成控制法的实证研究  

Do Financial Sanctions Restrain the Investment of Sovereign Wealth Funds in Russia?An Empirical Study Based on Synthetic Control Method

作　　者：戴利研[1] 李超[2] DAI Liyan;LI Chao

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学,辽宁沈阳110136 [2]复旦大学,上海200433

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2024年第5期17-30,共14页International Business Research

基　　金：2023年辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目“数字经济促进自由贸易试验区建设研究”(项目编号:JYTMS20230759);辽宁省社科联2024年度课题“日本半导体出口管制措施对辽宁半导体设备进口的影响及应对策略研究”(项目编号:2024lslybkt-029)。

摘　　要：主权财富基金是一类特殊的国际投资主体,与政府联系紧密,自身所具有的特殊属性与战略影响决定了其在金融制裁中更易触发制裁国的关注。本文分析了外国主权财富基金投资对俄罗斯的战略意义以及金融制裁遏制主权财富基金对俄罗斯投资的理论机制,在此基础上采用合成控制法量化评估美西方国家实施的金融制裁对俄罗斯吸引外国主权财富基金投资的影响。实证结果表明:2014年以来的金融制裁使俄罗斯年均损失超过36亿美元的主权财富基金投资流量,该规模达到制裁前外国主权财富基金对俄罗斯投资年度峰值的84%;而且制裁的负面影响随着时间的推移逐渐扩大。以上结果证明,美西方国家实施的金融制裁比较有效地遏制了外国主权财富基金对俄罗斯的投资,从而对俄罗斯构成经济孤立的压力。在当前金融制裁愈演愈烈的国际形势下,中国主权财富基金未来对俄罗斯投资以及与俄罗斯主权财富基金合作投资的行为将变得更加引人注目,应当及早做好预案,防范美西方国家的连带制裁。Sovereign Wealth Funds(SWFs)is a special kind of international investment subject,which is closely related to the government.SWFs is more likely to trigger the attention of sanctions initiating countries in financial sanctions casually because of their own special attributes and strategic influence.This paper analyzes the strategic significance of foreign SWFs’investment to Russia and the theoretical mechanism of financial sanctions to curb SWFs’investment in Russia.On this basis,the Synthetic Control Method is used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of financial sanctions imposed by the US-led Western countries on Russia’s attracting foreign SWFs’investment.The empirical results show that the financial sanctions since 2014 have caused Russia to lose more than$3.6 billion in investment flows of SWFs annually,which is 84%of the annual peak of foreign SWFs’investment in Russia before the sanctions.The negative impact of sanctions has gradually expanded over time.The above results prove that the financial sanctions imposed by the US-led Western countries have effectively curbed the investment of foreign SWFs in Russia,thus making Russia face the pressure of economic isolation.This study further points out that in the current international situation where financial sanctions are becoming more and more severe,China’s SWFs’future investment in Russia and its cooperative investment with Russian SWFs will become more noticeable,and plans should be made as early as possible to prevent Secondary sanctions from the US-led western countries.

关 键 词：金融制裁 主权财富基金 俄罗斯 国际投资 合成双重差分 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]