基于传染病动力学模型的诺如病毒疫情防控措施定量分析  

Quantitative analysis of Norovirus epidemic prevention and control measures based on infectious disease dynamics model

作　　者：来远为 汪金燕 LAI Yuanwei;WANG Jinyan(School of Mathematics and Information Science,North Minzu University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]北方民族大学数学与信息科学学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2024年第8期44-49,共6页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03233)。

摘　　要：根据2014年滨州某高校出现的诺如病毒传染的数据以及诺如病毒在临床上的病理特征,结合传染病动力学模型,从隔离感染者、消毒、追溯与感染者有接触者三种疫情防控措施的角度建立相应的SEAIQR模型,模拟了不同疫情防控措施不同实施强度下的防疫效果.相较于不采取干预措施的情况,采取对感染者进行隔离措施后累计感染者数量下降了35.90%;在采取隔离措施的基础上对可能造成传染的场所进行消毒,当消毒效果达到50%时,累计感染者数量下降了78.79%;在采取隔离措施的基础上追溯与感染者有接触的人并进行隔离,当追溯效果达到80%时,累计感染者数量下降了32.16%.采取隔离感染者、消毒、追溯与感染者有接触的人并进行隔离三种防疫措施效果较好,其中对可能造成传染的场所进行消毒防疫效果最佳.Based on the data of norovirus transmission in a certain university in Binzhou in 2014 and the pathological characteristics of norovirus in clinical practice,combined with the infectious disease dynamics model,corresponding SEAIQR models was established from the perspectives of isolating infected individuals,disinfecting,and tracing and isolating those who have contact with the infected,the epidemic prevention and control effects is simulated under different epidemic prevention and control measures and implementation intensities.Compared with the situation without intervention measures,the cumulative number of infected persons decreased by 35.90%after taking isolation measures for the infected.On the basis of taking isolation measures,disinfection was carried out in places that might cause infection,when the disinfection effect reached 50%,the cumulative number of infected persons decreased by 78.79%.On the basis of taking isolation measures,those who had contact with the infected were traced and isolated,when the traceability effect reached 80%,the cumulative number of infected persons decreased by 32.16%.The three epidemic prevention measures of isolating infected persons,disinfection,and tracing and isolating those who have contact with the infected have better effects,among which disinfection in places that may cause infection has the best epidemic prevention effect.

关 键 词：诺如病毒 传染病动力学模型 防控措施 防疫效果 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]