基于候补购票的铁路旅客出行需求挖掘方法研究  

Railway passenger travel demand mining method based on candidate ticket purchase

作　　者：谭思伦 卫铮铮 张晗 郝晓培 王利梅 TAN Silun;WEI Zhengzheng;ZHANG Han;HAO Xiaopei;WANG Limei(Institute of Computing Technologies,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Beijing Science and Technology,China Railway Beijing Group Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100036,China;Rail Travel Technology Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司电子计算技术研究所,北京100081 [2]中国铁路北京局集团有限公司北京科学技术研究所,北京100036 [3]铁旅科技有限公司,北京100083

出　　处：《铁路计算机应用》2024年第8期19-25,共7页Railway Computer Application

基　　金：北京经纬信息技术有限公司科研项目(DZYF23-10)。

摘　　要：针对铁路旅客出行需求受票额能力限制而难以准确估计的问题,引入候补购票数据,研究铁路旅客出行需求挖掘的方法。梳理了候补购票和出行需求的关系,依据业务规则和旅客选择对候补购票行为进行分类,挖掘旅客的预售出行需求;结合实名制数据和闸机刷卡数据标定旅客实际行程,从而挖掘旅客最终出行需求的上下限。选取北京—南京的城市OD(Origin-Destination)进行验证分析,结果表明,与既有的候补需求统计规则相比,最终出行需求能够与闸机推算的实际行程需求保持相似规律,更具合理性,为客运需求预测和铁路日常营销分析等工作提供了科学的基础数据支撑。In response to the problem of inaccurate estimation of railway passenger travel demand due to limited by ticket capacity,this paper introduced candidate ticket purchase data to study the railway passenger travel demand mining method.The paper sorted out the relationship between candidate ticket purchasing and travel demand,classified candidate ticket purchasing behavior based on business rules and passenger choices,mined passengers'pre-sale travel needs,and calibrated passengers'actual itineraries based on real name registration data and gate card swiping data,thereby mined the upper and lower limits of passengers'final travel demand.The paper selected the urban OD(Origin-Destination)of Beijing-Nanjing for verification analysis.The results show that compared with the existing candidate demand statistical rules,the final travel demand can maintain a similar pattern to the actual travel demand calculated by the gate,which is more reasonable and provides scientific basic data support for passenger demand forecasting and railway daily marketing analysis.

关 键 词：铁路旅客运输 候补购票 出行需求 需求受限 数据挖掘 

分 类 号：U293.22[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TP39[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]