“十四五”时期世界煤炭工业发展现状及趋势研究  

Research on the current situation and trends of world coal industry development during the 14th Five Year Plan Period

作　　者：倪坤 刘闯 王妍 NI Kun;LIU Chuang;WANG Yan(Information Institute of the Ministry of Emergency Management of the PRC,Chaoyang,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]应急管理部信息研究院,北京市朝阳区100029

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2024年第8期235-245,共11页China Coal

摘　　要：为了了解和把握世界煤炭工业发展趋势,推进我国煤炭工业高质量发展,通过研究分析进入“十四五”以来世界煤炭消费、生产、贸易、安全生产和生态环境保护等方面的现状和发展规律,采用定量研究和定性分析相结合的方法,提出了2024-2030年世界煤炭工业发展总体趋势。研究表明,“十四五”以来世界煤炭消费量和产量均屡创历史新高,发达经济体国家降低煤炭消费,新兴经济体国家煤炭产业发展迅速,世界煤炭消费、生产、贸易重心加剧东移;世界煤矿安全状况总体向好,煤炭绿色开发与清洁高效利用水平提高。预计到“十五五”末,世界煤炭需求将由2024-2025年的高位平台期过渡到2026-2030年的下降阶段,煤炭生产将平稳发展,安全生产和环境保护水平持续提升改善。In order to grasp the development trend of the world coal industry and promote the high-quality development of China's coal industry,the current situation and development laws of world coal consumption,production,trade,safety production,and ecological environment protection since the 14th Five Year Plan period were studied and analyzed.Using a combination method of quantitative research and qualitative analysis,the overall trend of world coal industry development from 2024 to 2030 is proposed.Research has shown that since the 14th Five Year Plan period,world coal consumption and production have repeatedly reached historic highs.Developed economies have reduced coal consumption,while emerging economies have achieved rapid development in their coal industry;the center of world coal consumption,production,and trade has intensified and shifted eastward;the overall safety situation of coal mines in the world is improving,as well as the level of green development and clean and efficient utilization of coal.It is expected that by the end of the 15th Five Year Plan,the world's coal demand will transit from a high plateau period in 2024-2025 to a declining stage in 2026-2030.Coal production will develop steadily,and the level of safety production and environmental protection will continue to improve.

关 键 词：世界煤炭工业 煤炭供需形势 煤炭贸易 煤矿安全 生态环境保护 

分 类 号：TD824[矿业工程—煤矿开采]