湖北省持续低温雨雪过程评估与分析  

Evaluation and analysis of continuous low temperature rain and snow process in Hubei Province

作　　者：温泉沛[1] 周月华[1] 李兰[1] 史瑞琴[1] 夏智宏[1] 杜良敏[1] 秦鹏程[1] 魏华兵 WEN Quanpei;ZHOU Yuehua;LI Lan;SHI Ruiqin;XIA Zhihong;DU Liangmin;QIN Pengcheng;WEI Huabing(Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074;Xianning Meteorological Bureau,Xianning 437100)

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074 [2]湖北省咸宁市气象局,咸宁437100

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2024年第4期440-447,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：湖北省气象局科技基金重点专项(2022Z05-14);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J051)。

摘　　要：气候变化背景下,极端持续低温雨雪过程时有发生,给社会生活带来诸多不利影响,为了进一步评估持续低温雨雪天气,对湖北省单站持续低温雨雪过程的评估指标进行了修订,同时建立区域性持续低温雨雪过程评估模型,并将修订后的评估指标应用于湖北省单站及区域性持续低温雨雪过程的梳理及分析。结果表明:(1)湖北省最严重的5次区域性持续低温雨雪过程分别出现在1954、1969、1977、1984和2008年,最严重的是1954年12月24日-1955年1月18日的过程,其次是2008年1月12日-2008年2月5日的过程。(2)湖北省区域性持续低温雨雪过程的易发区主要集中在鄂西的高山或半高山地区、江汉平原荆州一带、汉江河谷一带、鄂东南南部低山平原地区以及鄂东北山脉的缺口处。(3)气候变暖的背景下,湖北省单站和区域性持续低温雨雪过程均是在20世纪80年代前发生次数多,90年代后属于减少的阶段,但其强度更趋极端。Under the background of climate change,extreme and continuous low temperature rain and snow processes occur from time to time,bringing many adverse effects to social life.In order to further evaluate the continuous low temperature rain and snow weather,In order to further restore the disaster scenario,the indicators of the evaluation of the continuous low temperature rain and snow process at a single station in Hubei province were revised,and the regional evaluation model of the continuous low temperature rain and snow process was further established.The revised evaluation index was applied to the evaluation of single station and regional continuous low temperature rain and snow process in Hubei Province.The results showed that:(1)The five most serious regional continuous low temperature rain and snow processes occurred in 1954,1969,1977,1984 and 2008,respectively.The most serious process was from December 24,1954 to January 18,1955,followed by January 12,2008 to February 5,2008.(2)The regions prone to regional continuous low temperature rain and snow processes in Hubei Province were concentrated in the alpine or semi-alpine regions of western Hubei,Jingzhou area in Jianghan Plain,Hanjiang River valley,low mountain plain area in Southeastem Hubei and the gap of Mountains in northeast Hubei Province.(3)Under the background of climate warming,both single-station and regional continuous low temperature rain and snow processes in Hubei Province occurred more frequently before the 1980s,and decreased after the 1990s,but the severity of the events became more extrem.

关 键 词：湖北省 持续性低温雨雪 过程评估 指标修订 

分 类 号：P468.02[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]