基于ARIMA和模拟退火算法的电商包裹调运问题研究  

Research on E-commerce Parcel Shipment Problem Based on ARIMA and Simulated Annealing Algorithm

作　　者：郭锋 彭金龙 陈鹏[1] 尤硕 李天博 Guo Feng;Peng Jinlong;Chen Peng;You Shuo;Li Tianbo(School of Electrical and Control Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学电气与控制工程学院,辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《现代工业经济和信息化》2024年第7期251-254,共4页Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization

摘　　要：随着网络购物方式的日益普及和互联网经济的发展,因促销活动和物流场地停用所导致的运输和分拣包裹成本上升的问题也随之而来。为了降低运营成本、提高运营效率,预测物流场地和运输线路的货物量,为货物调运选择最优路线和方案尤为重要。基于此,建立了ARIMA时间序列预测模型,对物流场地和线路未来的货运量进行预测研究,建立线性规划模型,优化调整突发情况下的货运线路,利用模拟退火算法进行求解,选择影响程度较小的最优线路,降低运输成本。With the increasing popularity of online shopping and the development of Internet economy,the problem of increasing transportation and parcel sorting costs due to promotional activities and out-of-service logistics sites has arisen.In order to reduce the operation cost and improve the operation efficiency,it is especially important to predict the cargo volume of logistics sites and transportation routes,and choose the optimal routes and schemes for cargo transfer.Based on this,ARIMA time series prediction model is established to predict the future cargo volume of logistics sites and routes,linear programming model is established to optimize and adjust the cargo routes in case of emergencies,and simulated annealing algorithm is used to solve the problem,select the optimal routes with less influence,and reduce the transportation cost.

关 键 词：ARIMA时间序列预测模型 线性规划模型 模拟退火算法 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]