降低社保缴费基数下限对城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性的影响研究  

A study of the impact of lowering the lower limit of the social security contribution base on the sustainability of the fund of pension insurance for urban employees

作　　者：曾益[1] 王卓睿 ZENG Yi;WANG Zhuorui

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2024年第3期13-24,共12页Social Security Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“职工养老保险全国统筹对地方政府保费征缴行为的影响:机制探讨、实证检验与政策优化”(编号:72304283);中央高校基本科研业务经费“余缺调剂的全国统筹制度对职工养老保险财政负担的影响及优化对策”(编号:2722024BY018)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来,我国面临社会保险缴费负担较重和基金收支失衡的双重压力。以重庆发布的《关于调整城镇职工社会保险缴费基数下限的通知》中“将社保缴费基数下限从社会平均工资的60%下调至40%”的规定为切入点,基于31个省份2010—2014年的面板数据,采用合成控制法评估降低社保缴费基数下限对城镇职工基本养老保险征缴率的影响,并借助精算模型分析这一政策对该保险基金可持续性的影响发现:降低社保缴费基数下限可使城镇职工基本养老保险征缴率提高8个百分点;与未降低社保缴费基数下限的情况相比,降低社保缴费基数下限扩大了城镇职工基本养老保险基金的收入规模,基金累计赤字的时点向后推迟4年;降低社保缴费基数下限使2055年累计赤字规模减少6.53%,基金支付压力得以缓解。建议建立科学、公平、合理的缴费基数动态调整机制与弹性缴费机制,为提升税务机关和社保经办机构在扩面、征缴、监管过程中的效率和能力提供更多支持,进一步健全社保基金保值增值和安全监管体系。In recent years,China is faced with the dual pressure of a heavy burden of social insurance contributions and imbalance between fund revenue and expenditure.Taking the stipulation "the lower limit of social security contribution base is lowered from 60% of the average social wage to 40%" in "Notice on Adjusting the Lower Limit of Social Insurance Contribution Base for Urban Employees" issued by Chongqing as the starting point,based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2014,this paper uses synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of lowering the lower limit of social security contribution base on the collection rate of pension insurance for urban employees,and analyzes the impact of this policy on the sustainability of this pension insurance funds with the help of actuarial model.The results show that lowering the lower limit of social security contribution base can increase the collection rate of pension insurance for urban employees by 8 percentage points.Compared with the situation without lowering the lower limit of the social security contribution base,lowering the lower limit of the social security contribution base expands the revenue scale of the fund of pension insurance for urban employees,and the cumulative deficit of the fund is delayed by 4 years.Lowering the lower limit of the social security contribution base will reduce the cumulative deficit scale by 6.53% in 2055,and the payment pressure of pension insurance funds can be eased.Based on the above conclusions,it is suggested to establish a scientific,fair and reasonable mechanism for dynamic adjustment of contribution base and flexible contribution mechanism,provide more support for improving the efficiency and ability of tax authorities and handling institutions in the process of expanding coverage,collection and supervision,and further improve the system of preservation and appreciation of social security funds and safety supervision.

关 键 词：城镇职工基本养老保险 缴费基数下限 征缴率 基金可持续 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]