雅鲁藏布江流域奴下水文站极端降水与极端径流的关系研究  

The relationship between extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow at the Nuxia Hydrological Station in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin

作　　者：黄桂锋 孙赫 姚檀栋 HUANG Guifeng;SUN He;YAO Tandong(University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [2]中国科学院青藏高原研究所、青藏高原地球系统与资源环境全国重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2024年第4期1099-1112,共14页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0201);国家自然科学基金项目(42201140)资助。

摘　　要：青藏高原是亚洲十多条大江大河的发源地,被称为“亚洲水塔”。随着全球变暖加剧,青藏高原极端水文和气象事件频发。然而,其复杂的气候和下垫面(冰川、积雪、和冻土等)特征,限制了对该地区极端径流对极端降水响应关系的理解。本文以青藏高原南部的雅鲁藏布江流域为例,利用逐日降水和径流数据,通过改进极端径流阈值法,并结合相关分析等方法,研究了不同发生概率下极端径流与极端降水之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)雅鲁藏布江流域的极端径流事件通常持续1~2天,且随着发生概率的减小,事件持续时间相应缩短。(2)发生概率为10%、5%和1%的极端径流与极端降水的相关系数在0.07~0.28之间(P<0.01),且随着极端降水发生概率的增加,两者之间的响应关系逐渐加强。(3)在奴下水文站,极端径流对该水文站以上雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水的响应强度最大,而对奴下气象站和林芝气象站的响应相对较弱,同时,最高响应时间滞后一天。此外,极端径流对极端降水的响应关系也受到流域湿润程度、植被状况和土壤湿度等因素影响。本文改进的极端径流识别方法能够有效捕捉雅鲁藏布江流域受极端降水影响的极端径流事件,提高了径流组分复杂的高寒流域极端径流对极端降水响应关系的理解。与此同时,该研究还能够为气候变暖背景下雅鲁藏布江流域的水资源管理和区域经济发展提供重要的理论支撑和科学指导。Climate change has the potential to alter the global water cycle,resulting in an uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources.Furthermore,climate change can result in an increased frequency of meteorological and hydrological disasters.The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is the most unique geological-geographicalecological-resource-climatic unit on the Earth,known as“Asia Water Tower”and“The Third Pole”.It is the source of more than ten major rivers in Asia and is known as the“Water Tower of Asia”.With the intensification of global warming,extreme hydrological and meteorological events become more frequent on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.However,the complex climate and underlying surface characteristics,including glaciers,snow cover,and permafrost,limit our understanding of the response of extreme runoff to extreme precipitation in this region.Against this background,this study taking the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in the southern part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as an example,this study,based on daily precipitation and runoff data,improves the method of identifying extreme streamflow and utilizes correlation analysis to investigate the relationship between extreme streamflow and extreme precipitation at different probabilities.The results indicate that extreme streamflow typically last 1~2 days in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin,and as the probability decreases,the duration of events correspondingly shortens.Extreme streamflow events with probabilities of 10%,5%,and 1%exhibit coefficients ranged from 0.07 to 0.28(P<0.01)with extreme precipitation,and the relationship strengthens with increasing probability of extreme precipitation.At the Nuxia Hydrological Station,the response intensity of extreme streamflow to extreme precipitation in the upper stream of Nuxia Hydrological Station is greater than that at the Nuxia and Linzhi Meteorological Station,with a lag of one day.Additionally,the response of extreme streamflow to extreme precipitation is also influenced by moisture content,vegetation condi

关 键 词：极端降水 极端径流 极端径流识别方法 雅鲁藏布江 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]