青藏高原北部格尔木河流域水文过程的模拟与预估  

Simulation and projection of hydrological processes in Golmud River basin,northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

作　　者：饶天兴 周刚[1,2] 张世强 RAO Tianxing;ZHOU Gang;ZHANG Shiqiang(Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127 [2]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2024年第4期1113-1127,共15页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510503);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0201);国家自然科学基金项目(42171124)资助。

摘　　要：水文过程的准确模拟和预估对青藏高原水资源的管理和保护具有重要意义。然而,国家气象观测站点非常有限且分布不均,对高原地区水文过程的准确模拟带来很大挑战,因此利用多源降水资料是提高模拟精度的有效手段。本研究以青藏高原北部的格尔木河流域为例,使用VIC-CAS模型,以ERA5、WorldClim及TPHiPr三种降水产品的多年月平均降水量为背景场,利用气象站点观测数据进行插值得到气象驱动场,对格尔木河流域径流过程进行模拟与分析,并利用降尺度后的CMIP6气候模式数据对流域未来径流进行了预估。结果表明:以ERA5的多年月平均降水量作为协变量,并使用TPS插值法得到的气象驱动所模拟的效果最好,率定期和验证期的纳什效率系数(NSE)分别为0.71和0.70。格尔木河流域冰川融水与积雪融水对年径流量的贡献分别约为14.9%和32.5%。1971—2019年在年降水量缓慢增加及气温上升趋势显著的背景下,融雪径流和冰川径流的增加速率分别为0.28×10^(8) m^(3)·(10a)^(-1)和0.03×10^(8) m^(3)·(10a)^(-1),年径流以0.54×10^(8) m^(3)·(10a)^(-1)的速率增加,融雪径流增加贡献率超过50%。预估格尔木河流域2025—2100年在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下年均径流量分别为10.92×10^(8) m^(3)和11.51×10^(8) m^(3),增加速率分别为0.38×10^(8) m^(3)·(10a)^(-1)和0.51×10^(8) m^(3)·(10a)^(-1);预估在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,未来时期融雪径流与冰川径流均于21世纪20年代和30年代相继达到拐点,到21世纪末期出现大幅减少。本研究对青藏高原其他观测资料缺乏地区的径流模拟也具有一定的借鉴价值。The accurate simulation and projection of hydrological processes are of great significance for the management and protection of water resources in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.However,the limited and uneven distribution of national meteorological observation stations brings a great challenge to the accurate simulation of hydrological processes in plateau areas.Utilizing multi-source precipitation data is an effective means to improve simulation accuracy.In this study,the Golmud River basin in the northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was selected as a case study area.T he V IC-CAS model was employed using three precipitation products(ERA5,WorldClim,and TPHiPr)to represent the multi-year monthly average precipitation as the background field.The meteorological forcing data was derived through interpolation of observed data from meteorological stations,enabling simulation and analysis of the runoff process in the Golmud River basin.Additionally,future runoff predictions were made by downscaling CMIP6 climate model data.The results showed that the meteorological forcing data obtained by using the annual average precipitation of ERA5 as covariate and TPS interpolation method has the most effective simulation results,The Nash efficiency coefficient(NSE)were 0.71 and 0.70 in the calibration and validation period.The contribution of glacier meltwater and snow meltwater to annual runoff in Golmud River basin is about 14.9%and 32.5%respectively.From 1971 to 2019,under the background of slow increase of annual precipitation and significant trend of temperature rise,the increase rates of snowmelt runoff and glacier runoff were 0.28×10^(8) m^(3)⋅(10a)^(-1) and 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)⋅(10a)^(-1),respectively.The annual runoff increased at a rate of 0.54×10^(8) m^(3)⋅(10a)^(-1),and the increase of snowmelt runoff contributed more than 50%.Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the average annual runoff of Golmud River basin from 2025 to 2100 is projected to be 10.92×10^(8) m^(3) and 11.51×10^(8) m^(3),with an increase rate of 0

关 键 词：水文模拟 VIC-CAS 格尔木河流域 径流预估 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]