青藏高原寒区水文过程研究进展及模型述评  

Review of research progress and modeling of hydrological processes in the cold regions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

作　　者：王奕钧 于德永 周祉蕴[3] WANG Yijun;YU Deyong;ZHOU Zhiyun(Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Ecological Conservation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,College of Life Science,Qinghai Normal University Xining 810008,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命科学学院青藏高原地表过程与生态保育教育部重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]青海省人民政府-北京师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2024年第4期1312-1328,共17页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：青海省基础研究计划项目(2024-ZJ-919)资助。

摘　　要：全球气候变暖导致冰冻圈发生了剧烈变化,突出表现为冰川退缩、积雪消融、冻土退化等,加速了固态水资源向液态水资源的转化,打破了青藏高原寒区水资源分配的长期稳定机制。本文基于寒区冰冻圈变化水文效应角度,梳理了气候变化下青藏高原寒区水文过程研究进展,剖析了当前青藏高原寒区水文过程研究中存在的热点和难点。由于水文模型为研究水文循环过程的重要工具,模型的结构和功能决定了水文过程研究的准确度和发展方向。因此,本文总结了10个典型水文模型在模拟高原寒区冰川、融雪径流算法的优点和局限性及模型冰川、积雪、冻土模块特点,凝练总结了影响高原寒区水文过程模型模拟精度的主要问题。结果表明:青藏高原寒区气象观测站点资料的匮乏加大了数据输入、参数估计的不确定性;对冰冻圈水文内在物理过程认识不足导致了模型结构的不完备性,进而影响水文过程模拟精度。最后,本文从多元数据联合使用、机器学习应用等方面探讨了如何提高水文模型精度,为寒区水文模型的改进和完善提供参考。Global warming has triggered significant changes in the cryosphere,manifested in phenomena such as glacier retreat,snowmelt,and permafrost degradation.These transformations accelerate the conversion of solid water resources into liquid water,disrupting the long-term stability of water resource allocation in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau’s cold regions.This paper takes the perspective of hydrological effects of cryosphere changes in cold regions,reviewing recent advancements in the understanding of hydrological processes under climate change in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.We analyze the current challenges and hotspots in hydrological research specific to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Given that hydrological modeling is a crucial tool for studying the hydrological cycle,the structure and functionality of these models significantly influence the accuracy and direction of hydrological research.This paper summarizes the advantages and limitations of hydrological model algorithms for simulating glacier and snowmelt runoff in the plateau cold regions,and the characteristics of glacier,snow,and permafrost modules in 10 typical hydrological models.We also distill the main issues affecting the simulation accuracy of hydrological process models in this region.Our findings indicate that the limited availability of meteorological observation stations in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau contributes to uncertainties in data input and parameter estimation.Moreover,a lack of comprehensive understanding of the intrinsic physical mechanisms governing hydrological processes in the cryosphere results in incomplete model structures,further impacting the simulation accuracy of these hydrological models.Finally,we discuss strategies for enhancing the accuracy of hydrological models through the integrated application of multivariate data and machine learning algorithms in cold regions.

关 键 词：高原寒区 水文模型 积雪-冰川-冻土 径流 气候变化 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] P333.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]