甘肃洮河流域水文气象动态及径流和水质驱动机制  

Hydrometeorological dynamics and driving mechanism of runoff and water quality in the Taohe River basin,Gansu Province

作　　者：袁腾港 张英 钱继坤 宋斐 嵇振青 邹松兵[1,2] YUAN Tenggang;ZHANG Ying;QIAN Jikun;SONG Fei;JI Zhenqing;ZOU Songbing(Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems,Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Gansu Water Environment Monitoring Center,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]甘肃省水环境监测中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2024年第4期1329-1340,共12页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：甘肃省科技重大项目(21ZD4FA008,20ZD7FA005);国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2006,42171305);甘肃省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(2021ZD004);甘肃省知识产权计划项目(2022-0508-GHC-0035)资助。

摘　　要：在气候变化和人类活动密集的大环境下,流域水环境问题仍是当前国内外流域管理面临的严峻挑战之一。洮河流域是我国典型的高寒生态脆弱流域,研究洮河流域水文气象变化及水环境驱动机制对洮河流域水环境管理具有重要意义。本文通过统计、线性拟合和M-K趋势与突变检验对洮河流域1990—2018年间的降水和气温变化趋势特点及突变特征进行分析,并利用土地利用转移矩阵分析洮河流域1990年和2018年两期土地利用变化特征,揭示洮河流域水文气象动态特征。在此基础上,利用DEM、土地利用、土壤、气象数据等构建SWAT水文模型数据库,进行洮河流域径流和水质的月尺度模拟。模型将洮河流域划分为24个子流域,气象数据同时输入气温、降水量、相对湿度、风速和太阳辐射,并通过SWAT-Weather构建天气发生器。径流模拟时段1988—2018年,设置1988—1989年为预热期;水质模拟由于实测数据有限,DO模拟时段2015—2018年,NH_(3)-N模拟时段2018年全年。模拟率定与验证采用SWAT-CUP的SUFI-2校准方法,并选取R^(2)、NSE和PBIAS指标评价模型的模拟精度,为提高模拟的准确性,选取径流有关参数22个,水质有关参数37个。基于SWAT模型的模拟结果,利用产水量指标和Slope趋势分析洮河流域径流的时空变化趋势。最后,通过分别设定不同的降水、气温和土地利用类型输入条件,针对气候变化、土地利用变化以及气候和土地利用综合变化,进行情景模拟,并基于情景模拟结果分析洮河流域径流和水质的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)洮河流域近30年间,降水量年际变化浮动较大,整体呈上升趋势,线性趋势20.16 mm⋅(10a)^(-1),多年平均值为522 mm;气温无显著突变,整体呈上升趋势,线性趋势0.55℃⋅(10a)^(-1),多年平均值为5.09℃;洮河流域土地利用类型以耕地、草地和林地为主,各土地利用类型均发生变化,但面积变化�In the context of climate change and intensive human activities,the water environment problem of watershed is still one of the severe challenges faced by watersheds management in China and abroad.The Taohe River basin is a typical alpine ecologically fragile basin in China,and the study of changes in water environment elements and their driving mechanisms in Taohe River basin is of great significance to the management of water environment in Taohe River basin.In this paper,the characteristics of precipitation and temperature change trends and mutation features in the Taohe River basin during the period 1990—2018 were analyzed by statistics,linear fitting and M-K trend and mutation tests.The land use transfer matrix was used to analyze the land use change characteristics of the Taohe River basin in 1990 and 2018,and the hydrological and meteorological dynamic characteristics of the Taohe River basin were revealed.On this basis,the SWAT hydrological model database was constructed by DEM,land use,soil and meteorological data,and the monthly scale simulation of runoff and water quality in the Taohe River basin was carried out.The model divided the Taohe River basin into 24 sub-basins.The meteorological data of temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,wind speed and solar radiation were input,and the weather generator was constructed by SWAT-Weather.The runoff simulation period was 1988—2018,and 1988—1989 was set as the preheating period.Due to the limited measured data,the DO simulation period is 2015—2018,and the NH_(3)-N simulation period is 2018.The simulation calibration and verification were carried out by using the SUFI-2 calibration method in SWAT-CUP,and the R^(2),NSE and PBIAS indexes were selected to evaluate the simulation accuracy of the model.In order to improve the accuracy of the simulation,22 runoff-related parameters and 37 water quality-related parameters were selected.Based on the simulation results of SWAT model,the temporal and spatial variation trend of runoff in Taohe River basin is

关 键 词：SWAT模型 洮河流域 水环境驱动机制 土地利用和气候变化 

分 类 号：P343[天文地球—水文科学]