融合案例挖掘与贝叶斯网络的溃坝事故致因风险分析  

Risk analysis of dam break accident combining case mining and Bayesian network

作　　者：陈云[1,2] 王义俊[2] 郑霞忠 田丹[1] 晋良海 CHEN Yun;WANG Yijun;ZHENG Xiazhong;TIAN dan;JIN Lianghai(Hubei Key Laboratory of Hydropower Construction and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Safety Production Standardization Evaluation Center,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]三峡大学安全生产标准化评审中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期13-21,共9页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52209163,52179136)。

摘　　要：为了更加深入、全面探究溃坝事故致因风险发生机理,提出了融合历史溃坝事故案例挖掘与贝叶斯网络的溃坝事故致因风险计算方法。该方法在采集国内外大量历史溃坝事故案例的基础上,采用24Model识别和提取溃坝事故致因及致因链,构建了溃坝事故致因拓扑结构,利用贝叶斯正向因果推理计算了溃坝发生概率,并结合反向诊断推理分析溃坝成因机理,基于贝叶斯敏感性分析挖掘影响溃坝关键风险因素。结果表明:在人为因素方面,闸门控制问题比例较高;在管理因素方面,施工问题、运维管理缺陷、设计问题是溃坝重要间接诱因;洪水漫顶、渗透侵蚀和渗透管涌是导致溃坝的主要风险因素。To deeply and comprehensively explore the mechanism of the risk caused by dam break accident,this study proposes a calculation method of the risk caused by dam break accident through combining the mining of historical dam break accident cases and Bayesian network.Based on a large number of historical cases of dam break accidents at home and abroad,24Model is used to identify and extract the causes and chain of dam break accidents.The topology structure caused by dam break accident is constructed,and the probability of dam break is calculated by Bayesian forward causal reasoning,and the mechanism of dam break is analyzed by reverse diagnostic reasoning.Based on the Bayesian sensitivity analysis,the key risk factors affecting dam failure are explored.The results show that in terms of human factors,the proportion of gate control problems is high,while in terms of management factors,construction problems,operation and maintenance management defects,and design problems are important indirect causes of dam break.Flood overtopping and seepage erosion/piping are the main risk factors leading to dam failure.

关 键 词：大坝安全 溃坝事故致因 贝叶斯网络 案例挖掘 风险推理计算 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]