Strategies for improving crop comprehensive benefits via a decision-making system based on machine learning in the rice‒rape,rice‒wheat and rice‒garlic rotation systems in Southwest China  

作　　者：Xinrui Li Xiafei Li Tao Liu Huilai Yin Hao Fu Yongheng Luo Yanfu Bai Hongkun Yang Zhiyuan Yang Yongjian Sun Jun Ma Zongkui Chen 

机构地区：[1]Crop Ecophysiology and Cultivation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Rice Research Institute/State Key Laboratory of Crop Gene Exploration and Utilization in Southwest China/Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China [2]College of Grassland Science and Technology,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China [3]College of Agronomy,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China

出　　处：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》2024年第9期2970-2988,共19页农业科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2022M722301);the Sichuan Province Innovative Talent Funding Project for Postdoctoral Fellows,China(BX202207);the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province,China(2023NSFC0014 and 2024NSFSC1225).

摘　　要：Rice‒rape,rice‒wheat and rice‒garlic rotations are common cropping systems in Southwest China,and they have played a significant role in ensuring ecological and economic benefits(EB)and addressing the challenges of China’s food security in the region.However,the crop yields in these rotation systems are 1.25‒14.73%lower in this region than the national averages.Intelligent decision-making with machine learning can analyze the key factors for obtaining better benefits,but it has rarely been used to enhance the probability of obtaining such benefits from rotations in Southwest China.Thus,we used a data-intensive approach to construct an intelligent decision‒making system with machine learning to provide strategies for improving the benefits of rice-rape,rice-wheat,and rice-garlic rotations in Southwest China.The results show that raising the yield and partial fertilizer productivity(PFP)by increasing seed input under high fertilizer application provided the optimal benefits with a 10%probability in the rice-garlic system.Obtaining high yields and greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions by increasing the N application and reducing the K application provided suboptimal benefits with an 8%probability in the rice-rape system.Reducing N and P to enhance PFP and yield provided optimal benefits with the lowest probability(8%)in the rice‒wheat system.Based on the predictive analysis of a random forest model,the optimal benefits were obtained with fertilization regimes by reducing N by 25%and increasing P and K by 8 and 74%,respectively,in the rice-garlic system,reducing N and K by 54 and by 36%,respectively,and increasing P by 38%in rice-rape system,and reducing N by 4%and increasing P and K by 65 and 23%in rice-wheat system.These strategies could be further optimized by 17‒34%for different benefits,and all of these measures can improve the effectiveness of the crop rotation systems to varying degrees.Overall,these findings provide insights into optimal agricultural inputs for higher benefits through an intelligent de

关 键 词：rice rotation agricultural management greenhouse gas emissions comprehensive benefits fertilizer management 

分 类 号：S344.1[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]