城内迁居导致的街区尺度人口动态变化测度及其空间分异特征——基于手机信令数据的武汉市实证  

Measurement of neighborhood-scale population dynamic changes due to intracity migration and its spatial differentiation characteristics:Empirical evidence from Wuhan City based on mobile phone signaling data

作　　者：牛强[1,2] 胡金鹏 梁晓倩 刘晓阳 伍磊 NIU Qiang;HU Jinpeng;LIANG Xiaoqian;LIU Xiaoyang;WU Lei(School of Urban Design,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Hubei Habitat Environment Research Centre of Engineering and Technology,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学城市设计学院,武汉430072 [2]湖北省人居环境工程技术研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第8期1481-1495,共15页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52278075)。

摘　　要：准确把握城市内部人口动态变化规律,有助于推动区域协调发展、优化社会空间结构。既有研究多集中于宏观尺度的人口总量及分布变化,对于城内迁居导致的人口动态变化过程缺乏关注,其测度方法、特征规律等尚待探讨。论文基于手机信令大数据,以武汉市为例展开实证分析,构建人口动态变化的“规模—方向—动静”三维测度指标体系,运用聚类分析方法,解析城内迁居带来的街区尺度人口动态变化特征,探究人口动态变化综合类型及分异规律。结果表明:①中心城区到近郊区的人口动态变化具有“高活跃→中活跃→非活跃”的规模特征、“出入大致平衡→严重失衡”的方向特征以及“静态为主→动态为主”的动静特征;②武汉都市发展区人口动态变化综合类型共有5类,其中高活跃增长动态型和高活跃流失弱动态型主要穿插分布于中心城区和近郊区组团的核心区,中活跃微流失弱动态型主要分布在上述两类的外围,低活跃微增长强动态型与低活跃平衡动态型分布于中心城区边缘和近郊区组团外围;③武汉都市发展区内部人口动态变化综合类型具有“中心—外围”嵌套结构,中心城区与近郊区之间人口动态变化的空间分异主要与区位、居住环境品质有关,中心城区内部、近郊区组团内部的空间分异则主要与产业发育及类型有关。研究拓展了人口迁移和人口变化研究领域的理论方法,为优化城市社会空间结构、精细化制定居住空间供给政策等提供了参考依据。Accurately grasping the patterns of population dynamics within cities can help promote coordinated regional development and optimize the spatial structure of society.Most of the existing studies focus on the total population and distribution changes at the macro scale,but lack of attention to the process of population dynamics caused by intracity relocation,and its measurement methods and characteristics are yet to be explored.Based on cell phone signaling big data and taking Wuhan City as an example,this study carried out an empirical analysis by constructing a three-dimensional indicator system of scale-direction-movement for population dynamics,applying cluster analysis to analyze the characteristics of population dynamics at the neighborhood scale caused by intracity relocation,and exploring the comprehensive characteristics of population dynamics changes and differentiation patterns.The results show that:1)Population dynamics from the central city to the suburban areas have the scale characteristics of highly active→moderately active→inactive,directional characteristics of roughly balanced in and out→seriously imbalanced,and dynamic/static characteristics of static-oriented→dynamicoriented.2)There are five comprehensive types of population dynamics in the Wuhan metropolitan area,of which the highly active-growth-dynamic type and the highly active-loss-weak dynamic type are mainly interspersed in the core areas of the central urban area and the suburban area clusters;the moderately active-slight loss-weak dynamic type is mainly distributed in the periphery of the above two types;and the inactive-slight growth-strong dynamic type and the inactive-balance-dynamic type are distributed at the edge of the central urban area and the suburban area clusters.3)The comprehensive types of population dynamics within the Wuhan metropolitan area have a core-periphery nested structure:The spatial differentiation of population dynamics between the central urban area and the peri-urban areas is mainly related to locat

关 键 词：人口动态变化 三维测度指标体系 地理空间分异 手机信令数据 城内迁居 武汉 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学] C924.2[社会学—人口学]