西南地区暴雨灾害集中度变化特征及其与环流指数的关系  

Characteristics of Rainstorm Disaster Concentration Index in Southwest China and its Relationship with Circulation Index

作　　者：鄢晓茜 肖天贵[1,2] 王静 YAN Xiaoxi;XIAO Tiangui;WANG Jing(Yunnan Natural Disaster Prevention Technology Research and Development Center of Chengdu University of Information Technology,Kunming 650034,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Chinese Flight Test Establishment,Xi'an 710089,China;Yunnan Airport Group Co.,Ltd,Kunming 650000,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学云南自然灾害防御技术研发中心,昆明650034 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225 [3]中国飞行试验研究院,西安710089 [4]云南省机场集团有限公司,昆明650000

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2024年第2期91-97,共7页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AC10006,202203AC10005);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK010408);国家自然科学基金集成项目(91937301);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z010)。

摘　　要：选取1971—2020年西南地区95个气象站点日降水资料,以降水集中指数(PCI)为基础,构建了暴雨灾害集中指数(PDCI),分析了该指数在西南地区的时空变化特征,并运用交叉小波变换和小波相干变换方法探究了西南地区PDCI与大气环流指数的关系。结果表明:近50 a西南地区PDCI呈现增加趋势,其递增率为0.09/10 a,暴雨灾害发生的机率增长;西南地区75%的站点未来PDCI指数呈现增加趋势,预测暴雨灾害发生将会更为频繁;西南地区PDCI与AO、NAO、NINO1+2、NINO3.4、NINO4、PDO、SOI均存在共振周期,在不同时间段内PDCI与上述多种大气环流指数的相关性存在差异;对应的相关系数介于−0.27~0.31之间,得到上述多种大气环流指数均对西南地区暴雨灾害集中度存在一定影响。Using the daily precipitation data from 95 meteorological stations in southwest China from 1971 to 2020,based on the Precipitation Concentration Index(PCI),the Rainstorm Disaster Concentration Index(PDCI)is constructed.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the PDCI in southwest China are calculated and analyzed,and the relationship between the PDCI values and the atmospheric circulation index in the study area is discussed by using the cross wavelet transform and wavelet cross transform methods.The results showed that the PDCI in the study area showed an increasing trend with an increasing rate of 0.09/10a,and the probability of rainstorm disaster increased.The PDCI of three-quarters of the sites in the study area continued to show an increasing trend,and the occurrence of heavy rain disasters would become more frequent.In Southwest China,there were resonance periods between PDCI and AO,NAO,NINO1+2,NINO3.4,NINO4,PDO and SOI.However,there were some differences in the correlation in different time domain.The correlation coefficient between PDCI and atmospheric circulation index fluctuated from−0.27 to 0.31.It is shown that the atmospheric circulation index is an important factor affecting the change of rainstorm disaster concentration in Southwest China.

关 键 词：暴雨灾害集中度 变化特征 大气环流 西南地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]