山地城镇洪涝滑坡灾害韧性评估研究  

Study on Resilience Assessment of Flood and Landslide Disasters in Mountainous Urban Areas

作　　者：文海家[1,2] 钱龙 李卓航[1,2] 黄俊豪 WEN Haijia;QIAN Long;LI Zhuohang;HUANG Junhao(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China;Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学土木工程学院,重庆400045 [2]山地城镇建设新技术教育部重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆400045

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2024年第4期751-761,共11页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3007204)资助。

摘　　要：为实现对山地城镇灾害韧性的有效评估,以受洪灾-滑坡灾害链影响的中国典型山地城镇重庆市主城都市区为研究区,基于城市灾害韧性的内涵特征和作用机理,结合“压力-状态-响应”模型的因果逻辑,在多源数据收集分析的基础上,构建承载洪涝、滑坡灾害韧性评估指标体系。采用机器学习方法评估滑坡压力韧性,采用主客观组合权重分析及VIKOR法评估洪涝压力韧性和状态-响应韧性,采用秩和比综合评价法构建综合韧性评估模型,度量城市灾害韧性水平,划分韧性等级,分析评估结果。结果表明:(1)研究区西部与西北部滑坡压力韧性高,中部滑坡压力韧性处于中等水平,南部与东北部滑坡压力韧性低;(2)研究区中部洪涝压力韧性水平较低,而研究区东部和西部洪涝压力韧性普遍较高,整体呈现外圈高内圈低的态势,其中位于研究区东南部的南川区是洪涝压力韧性最高的区;(3)重庆市核心城区的渝中区是状态-响应韧性最高的区,整体的状态-响应韧性空间分布呈现出一种明显的中心至外围递减趋势;(4)综合韧性的空间分布没有明显的特征,但研究区普遍存在一个行政区会出现多种不同韧性等级的情况,体现了各阶段韧性发展的不平衡。To effectively evaluate disaster resilience in mountainous urban areas,the study focused on the central urban area of Chongqing,a typical mountainous city in China influenced by the flood-land-slide disaster chain.Based on the concept and mechanisms of urban disaster resilience and combined with the causal logic of the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)model,a resilience evaluation index sys-tem for floods and landslides was constructed through the collection and analysis of multi-source data.Landslide pressure resilience was evaluated using machine learning techniques,and the flood pressure and state-response resilience were assessed through a combination of subjective and objective weight-ing analyses with the VIKOR method.The rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method was em-ployed to construct an overall resilience assessment model,measure urban disaster resilience levels,classify resilience grades,and analyze the assessment results.The findings indicated that:(1)High landslide pressure resilience was observed in the western and northwestern regions of the study area,moderate resilience in the central area,and low resilience in the southern and northeastern regions.(2)Flood pressure resilience was lower in the central region of the study area,while the eastern and western regions generally displayed higher resilience,with the outer regions being more resilient than the inner regions.Nanchuan District in the southeastern region of the study area had the highest flood pressure resilience.(3)Yuzhong District,the core urban area of Chongqing,showed the highest state-response resilience,with the spatial distribution of state-response resilience exhibiting an evident de-creasing trend from center to periphery.(4)The spatial distribution of comprehensive resilience did not show distinct patterns,but it was common for an administrative region within the study area to exhibit varying resilience levels,reflecting the uneven development of resilience across different stages.

关 键 词：城市韧性 洪涝灾害 滑坡灾害 “压力-状态-响应”模型 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]