基于博弈论-贝叶斯网络的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估  

Risk assessment of gas explosion in coal mines based on game theory and Bayesian network

作　　者：林志军 李敏 贺珊 施式亮 田孝娜 王丹 LIN Zhijun;LI Min;HE Shan;SHI Shiliang;TIAN Xiaona;WANG Dan(School of Resource,Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2024年第8期3484-3497,共14页Journal of China Coal Society

摘　　要：为解决煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险分析中不确定性处理的不足和指标权重模糊性的难题,基于贝叶斯网络及博弈论提出了一种瓦斯爆炸风险评估方法。首先,基于专家经验和事故致因理论构建瓦斯爆炸风险拓扑结构模型,同时通过博弈论方法优化专家的主客观权重,然后基于模糊集理论计算风险因素的先验概率和条件概率;其次利用贝叶斯推理技术计算瓦斯爆炸发生的概率和风险因素的后验概率分布;最后通过敏感性分析和关键致因链分析,找出影响瓦斯爆炸关键性风险因素和关键风险路径。案例研究表明:山东省某煤矿工作面瓦斯爆炸发生的概率为6.5%,而导致瓦斯爆炸的主要点火源为电气故障、岩石间摩擦、放炮火花以及煤自燃;导致瓦斯超限最主要的原因为通风系统缺陷和通风系统设计。通过敏感性分析可知,通风系统缺陷和电气故障这两因素最为敏感。通过关键致因链分析可知,路径为电气故障→通风系统缺陷→通风措施→瓦斯控制措施→瓦斯超限和路径为电气故障→电火花→点火源的组合导致瓦斯爆炸发生可能性最大,相比于正常情况下,瓦斯爆炸发生的概率增加了301.5%。同时基于博弈论组合赋权法在提升指标权重的客观性和准确性上具有综合优点,评估结果符合煤矿实际情况。In order to solve the problem of uncertainty processing and the fuzziness of index weight in the risk analysis of gas explosion,a risk assessment model of gas explosion using the Bayesian network and game theory is proposed.Firstly,the topological structure model of gas explosion is constructed based on expertise and accident-causing theories.At the same time,the subjective and objective weights of experts are determined by game theory optimization.Then,the prior probability and conditional probability of risk factors are calculated based on the fuzzy set theory.Secondly,the Bayesian inference technology is used to calculate the probability of gas explosion and the posterior probability distribution of risk factors.Finally,the sensitivity analysis and key cause chain analysis are used to find out the key risk factors and key risk paths affecting gas explosion.The case study shows that the probability of gas explosion in the working face of a coal mine in Shandong Province is 6.5%.The main ignition sources of gas explosion are electric failures,friction between rocks,blasting sparks and coal spontaneous combustion,while the main causes of gas accumulation are ventilation system failures and ventilation system design. Through sensitivity analysis, it can be seen that two factors of ventilation system failures and electric failures are the most sensitive. According to the analysis of the key causal chain, it shows that the combination of the path of electric failures→ventilation system failures→ventilation measures→gas control measures→gas transfinite and the path of electric failures→electric spark→ignition source leads to the highest possibility of gas explosion. Compared with normal conditions, the probability of gas explosion increased by 301.5%. At the same time, the combination weighting method based on game theory has comprehensive advantages in improving the objectiv-ity and accuracy of index weights, and the evaluation results accords with the actual situation of coal mines.

关 键 词：瓦斯爆炸 贝叶斯网络 博弈论 组合赋权 风险评估 

分 类 号：TD712[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]