基于Logistic回归的老年髋部骨折患者术后尿道感染风险预测模型构建与应用  

Construction and Application of a Model for Predicting Postoperative Urinary Tract Infection Risk in Elderly Hip Fracture Patients Based on Logistic Regression

作　　者：王海鹏 唐艳斌 杨兴华[1] Wang Haipeng;Tang Yanbin;Yang Xinghua(School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069;Beijing Luhe Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 101199;Institute of Nutrition and Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学公共卫生学院,北京100069 [2]首都医科大学附属北京潞河医院,北京101199 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心营养与健康所,北京100050

出　　处：《四川医学》2024年第8期817-820,共4页Sichuan Medical Journal

基　　金：首都卫生发展科研专项项目(编号:首发2020-2-7081)。

摘　　要：目的探讨老年髋部骨折患者术后尿道感染风险因素,并以此构建老年髋部骨折术后患者尿道感染风险预测模型,并应用于老年髋部骨折围手术期。方法选取我院骨科2019年1月至2023年5月收治的老年髋部骨折患者1012例作为研究对象,其中发生术后尿道感染者111例。通过单因素分析初步筛选出老年骨科患者尿道感染的危险因素,综合考虑临床经验,将相关危险因素纳入多因素Logistic回归分析,并根据结果建立Logistic模型。结果纳入单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析模型分析,经筛选后发现,影响术后尿道感染的独立危险因素有低蛋白血症、电解质失衡、肺炎、糖尿病4项(P<0.05)。检测发现,预测模型在老年髋部骨折患者诊断中的敏感度、特异度各为83.78%,90.77%。结论低蛋白血症、电解质失衡、肺炎、糖尿病均是影响老年髋部骨折患者术后尿道感染风险的因素。基于本文列线图模型构建的老年髋部骨折尿道感染预测模型有良好的预测能力与准确性。Objective Explore the risk factors of postoperative urinary tract infection in elderly hip fracture patients,and construct the risk prediction model of,and apply it to the perioperative period of elderly hip fracture.Methods 1012 elderly patients with hip fracture admitted to our hospital from January 2019 to May 2023 were selected.Among them,111 patients had postoperative urinary tract infection.The risk factors of urinary tract infection in elderly orthopedic patients were initially screened through univariate analysis,considering the clinical experience,the relevant risk factors were included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and the Logistic model was established according to the results.Results Single-multivariate Logistic regression analysis model analysis was included.After screening,four independent risk factors affecting postoperative urinary tract infection were hypoproteinemia,electrolyte imbalance,pneumonia and diabetes mellitus(P<0.05).We found that the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model in the diagnosis of elderly hip fracture patients were 83.78%and 90.77%,respectively.Conclusion Hypoproteinemia,electrolyte imbalance,pneumonia and diabetes are all risk factors affecting postoperative urinary tract infection in elderly hip fracture patients.The prediction model of the elderly hip fracture infection constructed based on the nomogram model has good prediction ability and accuracy.

关 键 词：感染风险预测模型 髋部骨折 手术时间 手术切口 LOGISTIC回归分析 

分 类 号：R687.3[医药卫生—骨科学]