全球价值链视角下两岸技术性贸易壁垒对国家经济安全的影响——基于全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)  

The Impact of Technical Trade Barriers between Taiwan Region and Chinese Mainland on the National Economic Security

作　　者：刘姗姗 李静[2] Liu Shanshan;Li Jing

机构地区：[1]台湾地区标准化(厦门)研究中心 [2]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《台湾研究》2024年第4期68-78,共11页Taiwan Studies

基　　金：国家社科一般项目“人工智能促进区域经济协调发展的机制研究”(项目批准号:22BJL062);福建省自然科学基金项目“基于城市社会环境调节效应的智能制造与企业经营绩效提升研究”(项目批准号:2023J01031);国家市场监督管理总局科技计划项目“两岸食品安全法规智能化服务平台开发及应用研究”(项目批准号:2022MK141)的资助。

摘　　要：本文利用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟两岸技术性贸易壁垒对国家经济安全的影响,研究发现两岸技术性贸易壁垒分别提高1%、5%、10%,会对两岸的投资、消费、就业率、贸易条件、进出口贸易与福利水平均造成负面影响,且台湾地区的受损程度更严重;同时,壁垒提高幅度越大,两岸受到的经济冲击越强。总体而言,祖国内地经济体量巨大,拥有全行业产业分类,两岸技术性贸易壁垒提高并不会对国家经济安全产生太大影响。但是考虑到复杂的国际形势,通过产业链转移效应和技术性贸易措施扩散效应,也会对国家经济安全造成一定的威胁。This paper uses a global trade analytical model(GTAP)to study the impact of technical trade barriers between Taiwan Region and Chinese mainland on the national economic security.It is found that the increase of technical trade barriers of Taiwan region will bring a certain negative shock on the economic aggregate target of Chinese mainland and Taiwan region,such as investment,consumption,employment,terms of trade,import or export trade and benefit levels.And the economic damage of Taiwan is more serious than that of Chinese mainland.Meanwhile,the greater increase of technical trade barriers,the more serious shocks of economic impact in the Chinese mainland and Taiwan.In general,due to the huge economic size of the Chinese mainland and has classifications of whole industry in Chinese mainland,the simple increase of technical trade barriers in Taiwan will not cause too much risk of the economic security to the Chinese mainland.However,considering the industrial chain transfer effect and SPS spread effect,the increase of technical trade barriers in Taiwan region will also cause a great threat to the economic security of the Chinese mainland.

关 键 词：两岸贸易 技术性贸易壁垒 全球价值链 经济安全 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]