长江经济带水资源利用效率时空演化及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of water resources utilization efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：刘玒玒 刘书芳 LIU Honghong;LIU Shufang(School of Management,Xi'an University of Finance and Economics,Xi'an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]西安财经大学管理学院,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第8期1022-1034,共13页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:72074198);陕西省科技厅自然基础科学青年项目(编号:2022JQ-454);陕西省社会科学基金项目(编号:2021R015);陕西省教育厅重点科学研究计划项目(哲学社会科学重点研究基地类)(编号:20JZ052)。

摘　　要：提升水资源利用效率是缓解水危机的有效途径,也是推动区域高质量发展的落脚点。结合水资源利用效率的相关理念,应用超效率数据包络分析(super efficiency-data envelopment analysis,SE-DEA)模型,将环境因素纳入非期望产出指标体系中,评估长江经济带9省2市水资源利用效率,借助地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)技术分析水资源利用效率空间分布格局及其演变,结合全要素生产率指数(DEA-Malmquist)分析不同时期水资源利用效率的动态变化,选用受限因变量模型(Tobit回归模型)分析长江经济带水资源利用效率的驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)2011—2020年长江经济带水资源利用效率整体呈上升趋势,2011—2013年涨幅较大,空间分布差异明显,呈现“下游>中游>上游”的格局;水资源利用效率重心一直居于地理重心东面,并由东北向西南移动,表明东部的水资源利用效率强于西部,但东、西部水资源利用效率差距正在逐步缩小;2)长江经济带的全要素生产率(total factor productivity,TFP)与综合技术效率指数Ec的变化趋势基本一致,表明技术效率的提高是促使长江经济带水资源利用效率提升的主要因素,技术进步变化指数Tc多年均值小于1,说明技术进步速度缓慢成为制约水资源利用效率提升的主要因素;3)经济发展水平、产业结构、科技创新、政府管制力度对长江经济带水资源利用效率的提升有正向影响,而城市发展水平对长江经济带水资源利用效率的提升有反向影响,水资源禀赋对长江经济带水资源利用效率的提升作用未通过显著性检验。Improving water resource utilization efficiency is an effective way to alleviate the water crisis and a foothold to promote regional high‑quality development.Based on the relevant concepts of water resources use efficiency,this paper applies the super efficiency-data envelopment analysis(SE-DEA)model and incorporates environmental factors into the non-expected output index system to evaluate the water resources use efficiency in 9 provinces and 2 municipalities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and analyzes the spatial distribution pattern and evolution of water resources use efficiency with the help of geographic information system(GIS)technology.Combined with the total factor productivity index DEA-Malmquist,the dynamic changes in water resources use efficiency in different periods are analyzed,and the constrained dependent variable model(Tobit regression model)is used to analyze the driving factors of water resources use efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The research results show that:1)the change in water resource utilization efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020 shows an overall upward trend with a large increase from 2011 to 2013,and the spatial distribution difference is obvious,showing a pattern of"downstream>midstream>upstream".The center of water use efficiency has always been located in the east of the geographic center of gravity,and moves from northeast to southwest,indicating that the water resource utilization efficiency in the east is stronger than that in the west,but the gap between the east and the west is gradually narrowing.2)The variation trends of total factor productivity(TFP)and the comprehensive technical efficiency index(Ec)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are basically the same,indicating that the improvement of technical efficiency is the main factor promoting the improvement of water resources utilization efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The multi-year mean value of technological progress change index(Tc)is less than 1,indicatin

关 键 词：水资源利用效率 SE-DEA模型 DEA-Malmquist指数模型 标准差椭圆 TOBIT回归模型 长江经济带 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]