调水调沙期黄河下游河道洪峰增值预测方法研究  

Study on Flood Peak Discharge Increase Prediction Method of the Lower YellowRiver Channel During the Water and Sediment Regulation Period

作　　者：赵连军[1,2] 韩沙沙 董其华 ZHAO Lianjun;HAN Shasha;DONG Qihua(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部黄河下游河道与河口治理重点实验室,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第9期37-41,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206200);国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243219,U2243222,52109086);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022022);河南省自然科学基金资助项目(202300410540);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2022-03);郑州市基础研究与应用基础研究专项(黄科发202216)。

摘　　要：准确预测黄河调水调沙期出现的洪峰增值现象,不仅是水库工程调度和下游防洪工程防护的迫切需要,同时也是水力学及河流动力学学科研究面临的新课题。以增值比例为因变量,以小浪底沙峰、含沙量涨峰期平均涨率、含沙量起涨前基流、悬沙粒径等小浪底出库水沙特征参数为自变量,基于相关性分析筛选出沙峰、含沙量涨峰期平均涨率作为洪峰增值的预判参数。研究发现,当小浪底含沙量涨峰期平均涨率超过22.9 kg/(m^(3)·h)时,小浪底至花园口河段可能发生洪峰增值现象,并可基于小浪底沙峰与增值比例之间的相关关系预测增值区间;对2023年调水调沙期小浪底水文站实时水情、沙情进行跟踪,在小浪底水文站第一个沙峰出现后,对小浪底至花园口河段洪峰增值进行了预测预报,预测结果与实测结果基本一致。Accurately predicting the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon in the Yellow River during the period of water and sediment regulation is not only an urgent need for reservoir dispatch and flood control,but also a new topic for hydraulics and river dynamics research.This paper took the value⁃added ratio as the dependent variable,the sediment concentration peak,the average rate of increase during the peak period of the sediment concentration,the base flow before the sediment concentration rises,the particle size of suspended sediment at Xiaolangdi Station as the independent variables and the correlation analysis was conducted.As a result,the sediment concentration peak at Xiaolangdi Station and the average rate of increase during the peak period of the sediment concentration are filtered out,as the prediction pa⁃rameters for the flood peak discharge increase.The study proposes that the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon may occur in the Lower Yellow River when the average increase rate during the peak period of the sediment concentration at Xiaolangdi Station exceeds 22.9 kg/m^(3)·h,and the value⁃added interval can be predicted on the basis of the correlation between the peak sediment concentration and the value⁃added ratio of flood peak discharge.By tracking the real⁃time water and sediment conditions at Xiaolangdi Station during the water and sediment reg⁃ulation in 2023,prediction and forecasting of the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon was carried out,the prediction results are basi⁃cally consistent with the measured results.

关 键 词：洪峰增值 特征参数 预测方法 调水调沙 黄河下游 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1