气候变化对南水北调西线工程的影响及建议  

Impact of Climate Change on the West Route of the South⁃to⁃North WaterDiversion Project and Recommendations

作　　者：王国庆[1,2,3,4] 虞畅 金君良 宁忠瑞[2,3,4,5] 王云 孙高霞 WANG Guoqing;YU Chang;JIN Junliang;NING Zhongrui;WANG Yun;SUN Gaoxia(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Research Center on Climate Change,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029 [3]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [4]河海大学水安全与水科学协同创新中心,江苏南京210098 [5]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第9期60-66,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202301);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52121006)。

摘　　要：南水北调工程是国家水网的重要组成部分,其西线工程建设是缓解我国西北、华北地区水资源短缺的重要举措。气候变化下西线工程引水区和受水区水资源情势直接关系到工程的规划建设与运行方式。基于历史实测资料和气候模式情景,采用数理统计与水文模拟相结合的途径分析了气候变化对南水北调西线工程引水区和受水区水资源的影响。结果表明:1)1961—2020年西线调水区和受水区气候变化以暖湿化为主要特征,调水区年径流量整体稳定略增,受水区年径流量显著性减少。2)未来中期(2035年)和远期(2050年),调水区和受水区气温继续显著升高,降水多呈非显著增加;未来中期、远期调水区年径流量较基准期(1961—2000年)分别增加1.42%和2.08%,受水区年径流量分别减少1.02%和0.28%。3)未来气候变化下,调水区年径流量相对稳定,能够满足调水需求,受水区年径流量略减,对跨流域调水需求有所增加。为确保南水北调西线工程的长期稳定运行,建议加强气候变化及其影响的不确定性研究,制定科学合理的应对措施,以应对未来可能的水资源短缺的挑战。The South⁃to⁃North Water Diversion Project is a critical component of the national water network,with the West Route construc⁃tion serving as a crucial measure to alleviate water resources shortages in northwestern and northern China.The water resources pattern in the diversion and receiving areas of the West Route under climate change directly affects the planning,construction and operational strategies of the project.Based on historical observed hydro⁃climatic data and future climate model scenarios projections,impact of climate change on the water resources in the diversion and receiving areas of the West Route was assessed by employing the statistical analysis and hydrological modeling method.The results indicate that a)from 1961 to 2020,climatic conditions in the water diversion and receiving areas of the West Route are characterized by a warming and humidifying trend,with a slight increase in runoff in the diversion area and a significant decrease in runoff in the receiving area.b)In the medium⁃term future(2035)and long⁃term future(2050),temperatures in both the diversion and receiving areas are projected to rise significantly,with precipitation showing a non⁃significant increase.Runoff in the diversion area is expec⁃ted to increase by 1.42%and 2.08%for the medium⁃term and long⁃term futures respectively,compared with the baseline period(1961-2000),while runoff in the receiving area is projected to decrease by 1.02%and 0.28%respectively.c)Under future climate change scenari⁃os,the annual runoff in the water transfer area is relatively stable and can meet the demand for water transfer,while the annual runoff in the receiving area will slightly decrease,and the demand for inter⁃basin water transfer will increase.In order to ensure the long⁃term stable opera⁃tion of the West Route of the South⁃to⁃North Water Diversion project,it is suggested to strengthen the uncertainty research of climate change and its impact,and formulate scientific and reasonable countermeasures to cope with

关 键 词：气候变化 RCCC-WBM模型 水资源 南水北调西线工程 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程] P333