“双碳”目标下湖南省农业绿色全要素生产率分析  

Analysis of green total factor productivity of agriculture in Hunan province under the “dual carbon” goal

作　　者：刘红峰 刘惠良 LIU Hongfeng;LIU Huiliang(Hunan Automotive Engineering Vocational University,Zhuzhou 412001,Hunan,China;Hunan Information University,Changsha 410151,Hunan,China;Shaoguan College,Shaoguan 512000,Guangdong,China;Central South University of Forestry&Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南汽车工程职业大学,湖南株洲412001 [2]湖南信息学院,湖南长沙410151 [3]韶关学院,广东韶关512000 [4]中南林业科技大学,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2024年第7期184-192,共9页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：湖南省教育厅项目(23C0729、23C0728);湖南省社科成果评审委员会一般项目(XSP24YBZ051);湖南省社科成果评审委员会重大项目(XSP22ZDA003);广东省教育厅项目(2023WTSCX086);韶关市社科规划项目(G2023007);韶关学院博士科研项目(9900064601/139);湖南省社科基金智库专项重点项目(21ZWB01)。

摘　　要：【目的】农业碳排放在碳排放总量中所占比例很高。通过绿色农业生产减少农业碳排放,实现“双碳”目标,是不可忽视的重要领域,也是绿色农业发展的必然要求。作为农业大省,湖南省通过计算农业绿色全要素生产率及其核心影响因素,准确识别其障碍因素,为提高农业绿色全要素生产率、促进农业绿色发展、实现“双碳”目标提供理论依据和决策参考。【方法】运用SBM-DDF指数模型测算湖南农业绿色全要素生产率及碳排放量,采用2012—2022年湖南各市州数据进行测算,从时空间分布角度分析其特征;再建立固定效应模型,选取生产技术创新投资强度、绿色高新技术采用强度、区域一二三融合发展水平、对影响农业绿色全要素生产率的核心因素,包括化肥和农药施用强度、经济增长水平等进行回归研究。【结果】研究发现,在“双碳”目标下,湖南省农业年均绿色全要素生产力呈时间序列振荡状态,区域空间分布不均,农业生产技术创新投资强度、绿色高新技术采用强度、经济增长水平、化肥与农药施用强度、一、二、三产业区域一体化强度与农业绿色全要素生产率强相关;2012—2022年,湖南省农业绿色全要素生产率逐年提高,绿色高新技术进步是主要驱动力,但增速呈下降趋势。【结论】湖南省绿色技术改造应用主要技术实施率低;农业绿色技术创新能力不强;绿色生产技术创新和改进的投资强度相对较低;区域一二三融合发展的举措与降低农业碳排放量的举措效率不高。【Objective】Agricultural carbon emissions account for a high proportion of total carbon emissions.Reducing agricultural carbon emissions through green agricultural production and achieving the “dual carbon” goal is an important area that cannot be ignored,and it is also an inevitable requirement for the development of green agriculture.As a major agricultural province,Hunan province accurately identifies its obstacles by calculating the agricultural green total factor productivity and its core influencing factors,providing theoretical basis and decision-making reference for improving agricultural green total factor productivity,promoting agricultural green development,and achieving the “dual carbon” goal.【Method】The SBM-DDF index model was used to calculate the green total factor productivity and carbon emissions of agriculture in Hunan.Data from various cities and prefectures in Hunan from 2012 to 2022 were used for calculation,and their characteristics were analyzed from the perspective of temporal and spatial distribution;Establish a fixed effects model again,select the intensity of investment in production technology innovation,the intensity of adoption of green high-tech,the level of regional integration of primary,secondary,and tertiary development,and conduct regression research on the core factors affecting agricultural green total factor productivity,including the intensity of fertilizer and pesticide application,and the level of economic growth.【Result】The study found that under the “dual carbon” target,the annual green total factor productivity of agriculture in Hunan province showed a time series oscillation state,with uneven regional spatial distribution.The intensity of agricultural production technology innovation investment,the adoption of green high-tech,economic growth level,the intensity of fertilizer and pesticide application,and the intensity of regional integration of the first,second,and third industries were strongly correlated with agricultural green total factor pr

关 键 词：碳排放 绿色全要素生产率(GTFP) SBM-DDF模型 Malmquist-Luenberger指数 

分 类 号：S727.9[农业科学—林木遗传育种]