国际产业转移对我国产业链韧性的影响——基于产业链纵向关联视角  

The Impact of Industrial Relocation on the Resilience of China's Industrial Chain—From the Perspective of Vertical Industrial Linkages

作　　者：张兵[1] 杨璐 ZHANG Bing;YANG Lu

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第8期1-18,共18页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：中央高校“双一流”引导专项资金项目“中国经济增长质量国际比较及新常态下的提升路径研究”(96176403)。

摘　　要：本文利用上市公司生产基地产业转移规模数据,从产业链纵向关联视角考察国际产业转移对我国产业链韧性的影响及传导机制。研究发现,国际产业转移前向溢出效应显著提升了下游环节产业链韧性程度,而后向溢出效应则对上游产业链韧性起到抑制作用。机制分析发现,前向溢出效应主要通过提升下游企业生产效率、制定合理生产决策,进而对下游产业链韧性产生影响;后向溢出效应主要通过替代上游企业自主研发、抑制上游企业创新动力进而对上游产业链韧性产生影响。异质性分析表明,国际产业转移梯度和产业类别均会对我国产业链韧性的影响产生异质性效果。同时,从长期来看,国际产业转移在产业链纵向关联下所发挥的正向溢出效应更加明显。此外,国际产业转移会推动国内产业链关联企业相继转移,形成产业间集聚效应。本文的研究对于优化国际产业布局,推动产业链纵向协同建设,提升我国产业链韧性程度具有一定政策启示。Utilizing data on the scale of industrial relocation by publicly listed com⁃panies,we analyze its effects on the resilience of China's industrial chains and explore the transmission mechanisms through a vertical linkage perspective.The study reveals that while the forward spillover effect of industrial relocation significantly enhances the resilience of downstream segments,the backward spillover effect tends to weaken the resil⁃ience of upstream segments.Our analysis indicates that forward spillovers primarily bolster resilience by improving production efficiency and facilitating informed decision⁃making in downstream enterprises.In contrast,backward spillovers erode resilience in upstream seg⁃ments by displacing independent research and development and diminishing incentives for innovation.Further heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the impacts of industrial relo⁃cation on chain resilience vary markedly across different scales of relocation and industry sectors.Over the long term,the positive spillover effects of industrial relocation become more pronounced through vertical linkages.Moreover,industrial relocation promotes a se⁃quential transfer of enterprises within domestic chains,leading to industry⁃wide agglomera⁃tion effects.This research offers valuable policy recommendations for optimizing interna⁃tional industrial configurations,enhancing vertical coordination within industrial chains,and strengthening the resilience of China's industrial chains.

关 键 词：国际产业转移 产业链韧性 溢出效应 纵向关联 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]