采用标准化降水指数评估滨州市旱灾风险  

Drought Risk Assessment in Binzhou City Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

作　　者：孟欣然 王昕[2] 曹岳阳 李学军 徐征和 MENG Xinran;WANG Xin;CAO Yueyang;LI Xuejun;XU Zhenghe(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,Shandong,China;Water Resources Research Institute of Shandong Province,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Jinan Water Conservancy Engineering Service Center,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Shandong Linyi Water Conservancy Engineering Corporation,Linyi 276006,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南250022 [2]山东省水利科学研究院,山东济南250014 [3]济南市水利工程服务中心,山东济南250014 [4]山东临沂水利工程总公司,山东临沂276006

出　　处：《济南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期541-548,共8页Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42007153);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2020ME253,ZR2020ME255)。

摘　　要：为了对地区性历史干旱灾害造成的损失程度与未来将受旱灾影响的相关性进行研究,基于自然灾害风险理论,收集1957—2015年山东省滨州市各县(区)逐日降水资料,结合1978—2020年的历史旱灾损失数据和人均国内生产总值等社会经济数据,利用层次分析法确定指标权重,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度、孕灾环境脆弱性、损失风险和抗旱减灾能力5个方面构建干旱灾害风险模型,计算致灾因子危险性指数、承灾体暴露度指数、孕灾环境脆弱性指数、损失风险指数、抗旱减灾能力指数以及干旱灾害综合风险指数,并基于地理信息系统软件绘制滨州市干旱灾害综合风险分布图。结果表明:致灾因子危险性指数呈东西两侧低、中间高的趋势,承灾体暴露度指数总体呈现为西南部大、东北部小的趋势,孕灾环境脆弱性指数呈北部高、西南部低的趋势,损失风险指数呈南北两侧高、中部低的趋势,抗旱减灾能力指数呈北部高、西南部低的趋势;干旱灾害综合风险中邹平市、沾化区和无棣县的干旱灾害风险性较高,滨城区和博兴县的干旱灾害风险性较低。To study the correlation between the extent of damage caused by historical drought disasters in a region and the impact of drought in the future,based on the theory of natural disaster risk,the daily precipitation data of each county(district)in Binzhou City,Shandong Province from 1957 to 2015 were collected,combined with the historical drought loss data and per capita GDP and other socio-economic data from 1978 to 2020,using the analytic hierarchy method to determine the weight of indicators,a drought disaster risk model was constructed from five aspects of risk of disaster factors,exposure of disaster-bearing bodies,vulnerability of disaster-pregnant environments,risk of loss and ability of drought resistance and mitigation.The risk index of disaster-causing factors,exposure index of disaster-bearing bodies,vulnerability index of disaster-bearing environment,loss risk index,drought resistance and disaster reduction ability index and comprehensive risk index of drought disaster were calculated,and the comprehensive risk distribution map of drought disaster in Binzhou City was drawn based on geographic information system software.The results show that the risk index of disaster-causing factors is low in the east and west and high in the middle.The exposure index of disaster-bearing bodies generally shows a trend of large in the southwest and small in the northeast.The vulnerability index of disasterpregnant environments shows a trend of high in the north and low in the southwest.The loss risk index shows a trend of high in the north and south and low in the middle.The drought resistance and disaster reduction capacity index show a trend of high in the north and low in the southwest.Among the comprehensive risk of drought disasters,the risk of drought disasters is high in Zouping,Zhanhua and Wudi County,Bincheng and Boxing County are less risky.

关 键 词：旱灾 风险评估 标准化降水指数 滨州市 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程] S166[农业科学—农业工程] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]