考虑参数模糊性的头道河Ⅱ号滑坡可靠度分析  

Reliability Analysis of the Toudaohe No.Ⅱ Landslide Considering Parameter Ambiguity

作　　者：孙昊 董清志 刘亚军 夏自卿 SUN Hao;DONG Qingzhi;LIU Yajun;XIA Ziqing(HENAN ZHONGGONG DESIGN&RESEARCH GROUP CO.,LTD.,Zhengzhou 450052)

机构地区：[1]河南省中工设计研究院集团股份有限公司,郑州450052

出　　处：《土工基础》2024年第4期660-663,共4页Soil Engineering and Foundation

摘　　要：依托头道河Ⅱ号滑坡,提出了考虑岩土参数模糊随机性与边坡模糊过渡区间的可靠度计算方法。将土体样本试验力学参数随机值转换为模糊随机变量;在模糊随机变量与模糊过渡区间的基础上,建立模糊随机极限状态方程;确定岩土参数不同λ截集的上下限及与之对应的极限状态方程;推导出仅与岩土参数变量相关的头道河Ⅱ号滑坡可靠度计算公式,利用Geostudio软件模拟计算得到该滑坡的模糊随机可靠度。最后与传统的蒙特卡洛模拟法计算出的可靠度进行对比得出:当用蒙特卡洛模拟计算出的破坏概率为8.04%时,考虑岩土参数模糊性后滑坡破坏概率为11.99%,表明考虑岩土参数模糊随机性的头道河Ⅱ号滑坡,其破坏概率有了一定增大。A reliability analysis method for the Toudaohe No.Ⅱ landslide is presented in this paper,which considers the fuzzy randomness of rock and soil parameters and the transition interval between the fuzzy randomness of rock and soil parameters and the fuzzy slope,in response to the failure to consider the Ambiguity of the shear strength parameters in the stability analysis of the Toudaohe No.Ⅱ landslide.The method converts the random values of the soil sample tested mechanical parameters into the fuzzy random variables.Based on the fuzzy random variables and fuzzy transition intervals,a fuzzy random limit state equation is established.Different geotechnical parametersλas well as the upper and lower limits and their corresponding limits state equations are also determined.A formula for calculating the reliability of the Toudaohe No.Ⅱ landslide that is only related to geotechnical parameter variables is derived.By using the Geostudio software,the fuzzy random reliability of the Toudaohe No.II landslide is simulated and estimated.Finally,the reliability estimated by the traditional Monte Carlo simulation method is presented in the paper.It is found that,when the failure probability obtained by using the traditional reliability estimating methods is 8.04%,and considering the ambiguity of shear strength parameters,the landslide failure probability is 11.99%.This indicates that the failure probability of the Toudaohe No.Ⅱ landslide considering the fuzziness and randomness of geotechnical parameters has increased.

关 键 词：头道河Ⅱ号滑坡 模糊可靠度 稳定性评价 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]