基于优化MaxEnt模型的濒危植物海南风吹楠生境适宜性评价  

Evaluating habitat suitability of endangered plant Horsfieldia hainanensis based on the optimized MaxEnt model

作　　者：梁惠子 林源 刘雄盛[1] 蒋燚[1] 杨继生 黄荣林[1] 王仁杰 王勇[1] LIANG Huizi;LIN Yuan;LIU Xiongsheng;JIANG Yi;YANG Jisheng;HUANG Ronglin;WANG Renjie;WANG Yong(Guangxi Forestry Research Institute,Guangxi Key Laboratory of Superior Trees Resource Cultivation,Nanning 530002,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区林业科学研究院广西优良用材林资源培育重点实验室,广西南宁530002

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2024年第8期16-26,共11页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32001229)。

摘　　要：【目的】海南风吹楠为中国湿润热带雨林的标志性物种,由于其自身生物学特性和人为破坏、盗伐而处于濒危状态。预测当代时期海南风吹楠在中国的潜在适生区,分析影响其适生区分布的主要环境因子,探究未来气候情景下其适生区的分布格局变化,可为海南风吹楠种质资源的保护和恢复提供理论依据。【方法】基于海南风吹楠的37个种群分布点和11个环境因子数据,利用经过R语言优化的MaxEnt模型以及GIS软件预测该物种的适生区的分布及未来变化趋势,探讨影响其分布的主要环境因子。【结果】优化的MaxEnt模型预测精度高,平均AUC值为0.960;最冷月份的最低温度、年平均温度差、归一化植被指数是影响海南风吹楠适生区分布的主要环境因子,其中,最冷月份的最低温度适宜值范围为9.7~14.7℃,年平均温度差适宜值范围小于20.7℃,归一化植被指数适宜范围大于211;当代时期海南风吹楠的适生区分布于中国南部的广西、云南和海南3省区,总面积为20.71×10^(3)km^(2),其中高适生区面积为8.63×10^(3)km^(2),低适生区面积为12.08×10^(3)km^(2);在未来3个时期4种情景下,海南风吹楠适宜生境面积呈整体扩大趋势,生境分布质心位置将向高纬度迁移,表现为向北部变化的趋势。【结论】优化的MaxEnt模型可较准确预测海南风吹楠潜在适生区。海南风吹楠在当代时期仍有较大范围的潜在适生区,主要受温度相关因子影响。随着气候变化,未来海南风吹楠适宜生境面积增大,适生区向北迁移。【Objective】Horsfieldia hainanensis is an iconic species of moist tropical rainforests in China,and it is currently endangered due to its own biological characteristics and human destruction and logging.Predicting the potential distribution of H.hainanensis in China during the contemporary period,analyzing the main environmental factors affecting its distribution,and exploring the changes in its distribution pattern under future climate scenarios can provide a theoretical basis for the protection and restoration of its germplasm resources.【Method】Based on 37 distribution points of H.hainanensis and 11 environmental factors,the optimized MaxEnt model with R language and GIS software were used to predict the distribution and future change trends of the species’suitable habitat areas,and to explore the main environmental factors affecting its distribution.【Result】The optimized MaxEnt model had high prediction accuracy,with an average AUC value of 0.960.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of H.hainanensis’s suitable habitat areas were the min temperature of the coldest month,the temperature annual range,and normalized difference vegetation index.The suitable ranges for these factors were as follows:the min temperature of the coldest month ranged from 9.7 to 14.7℃,the temperature annual range was less than 20.7℃,and the normalized difference vegetation index was higher than 211.In the contemporary period,the distribution of H.hainanensis’s suitable habitat areas spanned three provinces in southern China:Guangxi,Yunnan,and Hainan,with a total area of 20.71×10^(3)km^(2),including 8.63×10^(3)km^(2)of highly suitable habitat and 12.08×10^(3)km^(2)of low suitable habitat.In the future,hainanensis will show an overall expansion trend,and the position of the habitat distribution centroid will migrate to higher latitudes,indicating a trend of change towards the north.【Conclusion】The optimized MaxEnt model can accurately predict the potential suitable habitats of H.hainanensis.

关 键 词：海南风吹楠 MaxEnt模型 共享社会经济路径 环境因子 适生区 

分 类 号：S718.54[农业科学—林学] Q948.2[生物学—植物学]