财政政策导向、国有企业配合度与债务风险——基于最优杠杆率偏离度的检验  

Fiscal Policy Orientation,Cooperation Degree of State-owned Enterprises and Debt Risk:Test Based on the Deviation Degree of Optimal Leverage Ratio

作　　者：温来成[1,2] 莫钰杰 李林 WEN Lai-cheng;MO Yu-jie;LI Lin

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中财-安融地方财政投融资研究所 [2]中央财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第9期20-34,共15页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“深化预算管理制度改革研究”(项目编号:21ZDA043)。

摘　　要：国有企业债务风险问题及“平台化”现象引起社会各界关注。探究政策对国有企业融资决策的影响,有助于政府更有效地制定财政政策,引导国有企业规范融资行为,降低国有企业债务风险。笔者运用企业微观数据和宏观经济数据拟合的最优杠杆率构建杠杆偏离度指标,以“四万亿计划”政策措施为例,深入探讨了政策导向促使国有企业债务风险形成的机理。研究表明,相对于非国有企业,国有企业展现出对财政政策更高的配合度。在扩张性财政政策实施后,国有企业更积极地进行融资活动,导致实际杠杆率高于最优杠杆率。机制分析表明,提高政府补助和降低融资成本是促使国有企业配合的重要原因。异质性分析表明,在政策冲击后原本过度负债的国有企业杠杆偏离度更大,进一步扩大了债务风险;而经营范围与政策内容关联、与政府关系更紧密、市场地位更高的国有企业融资意愿也更强。进一步研究发现,过度负债的国有企业持续融资扩大了债务风险,阻碍了新质生产力发展,而低负债的非国有企业融资后能够显著促进新质生产力提高,体现出更高的资源配置效率。据此,提出引导国有企业稳健经营,优化资金配置效率,精准施策等政策建议。In recent years,the problem of state-owned enterprise debt risk and the phenomenon of“platformization”have attracted the attention of all sectors of society.Exploring the influence of policies on financing decisions of state-owned enterprises is helpful for the government to formulate fiscal policies more effectively,guide state-owned enterprises to regulate financing behaviors,and reduce the debt risks of state-owned enterprises.In this paper,leverage deviation index is constructed by using the optimal leverage ratio fitted by enterprise micro-data and macro-economic data.Taking the“Four Trillion Plan”policy measures as an example,this paper deeply discusses the mechanism of policy orientation to promote the formation of state-owned enterprise debt risk.The research shows that compared with non-state-owned enterprises,state-owned enterprises show a higher degree of cooperation with fiscal policies.After the implementation of expansionary fiscal policy,state-owned enterprises more actively carry out financing activities,resulting in the actual leverage ratio is higher than the optimal leverage ratio.Mechanism analysis shows that increasing government subsidies and reducing financing costs are important reasons for state-owned enterprises to cooperate.Heterogeneity analysis shows that after the policy impact,the over-indebted state-owned enterprises have greater leverage deviation,which further expands the debt risk.State-owned enterprises with business scope and policy content,closer relationship with the government,and higher market position are also more willing to finance.Further research finds that the continuous financing of over-indebted state-owned enterprises expands the debt risk and hinders the development of new quality productivity,while the financing of non-state-owned enterprises with low debt can significantly promote the improvement of new quality productivity and reflect higher resource allocation efficiency.Based on the above research,this paper puts forward policy suggestions such as gu

关 键 词：国有企业 最优杠杆率 财政政策 债务风险 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]