基于改进SPA-EWM理论的隧道通风竖井掘进风险评估模型  

Risk assessment model for tunnel ventilation shaft boring based on improved SPA-EWM theory

作　　者：倪苏黔 徐颖[1,2] 来永辉 杨荣周 程琳[1] 付鸿鑫 焦杨浩楠 NI Suqian;XU Ying;LAI Yonghui;YANG Rongzhou;CHENG Lin;FU Hongxin;JIAO Yanghaonan(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China;State Key Laboratory of Mining Response and Disaster Prevention and Control in Deep Coal Mines,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China;Zhejiang Tunnel Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学土木建筑学院,安徽淮南232001 [2]安徽理工大学深部煤矿采动响应与灾害防控国家重点实验室,安徽淮南232001 [3]浙江省隧道工程集团有限公司,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2024年第4期60-71,共12页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB3401504);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52074009);安徽省高等学校自然科学研究重点项目(2023AH051167)。

摘　　要：为满足“一次成深大竖井”的高效成井要求,竖井掘进机(shaft boring machine,SBM)应需而生。以竖井掘进机的工程应用为研究背景,分析和辨识了竖井掘进机掘进的风险因素,将竖井施工风险划分成5个等级,并构建了三层级的竖井掘进风险评估指标体系。考虑联系度中同、异、反的取值问题,将集对分析理论(set-pair analysis,SPA)中的联系度赋值方法进行了有效改进,同时结合熵权法(entropy weight method,EWM)计算各风险因素的联系度表达式,建立了一种改进集对分析理论的深地竖井SBM掘进风险评估模型,并对联系度与风险计算值的变化关系进行趋势拟合,从而给出风险水平评估依据。借助该风险评估模型,对沿江高速火山隧道通风竖井进行了施工风险评估及预测,提出了风险偏好不同的工程人员对竖井掘进风险的不同取值方法,结合现场布测结果进一步验证了风险模型的适用性。立足我国SBM工法的初次应用,提出的深地竖井SBM掘进风险评估模型为深大竖井施工起到了一定指导作用,也为今后深地竖井掘进的风险评估研究奠定了一定理论基础。To meet the requirement of“forming a deep and large shaft in one time”,shaft boring machine(SBM)was made.Taking the engineering application of SBM as the research background,the risk factors of SBM tunnelling is analyzed and identified.The shaft construction risk is divided into five levels.A three-levels shaft tunnelling risk assessment index system is constructed.Considering the problem of taking the same,different and opposite values in the degree of linkages,the assignment method in the set-pair analysis(SPA)method is improved.Based on the entropy weight method(EWM)to calculate the weight vector of each risk factor,a risk assessment model for SBM boring in deep ground shaft was established to improve the SPA method.A trend was fitted to the change relationship between the association degrees.The calculated risk value is to give the basis for risk level assessment.With the help of this risk assessment model,the risk assessment and prediction of the ventilation shaft construction in volcanic tunnels along the river highway is carried out.Different methods of taking the shaft construction risk by engineering managers with different risk preferences are proposed.The applicability of the risk model was further validated in conjunction with the field measurement results.Based on the first application of SBM method in China,this study proposes a risk assessment model for deep ground shaft SBM boring to play a theoretical guiding role for the construction of deep large shafts.It also lays a certain theoretical foundation for future risk assessment research of deep ground shaft boring.

关 键 词：竖井掘进机 竖井施工 集对分析理论 熵权法 风险评估 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]