基于观测与预报数据融合的森林火险预报  

Forest Fire Risk Forecast Based on the Fusion of Observation and Forecast Data

作　　者：罗永明[1] 曾行吉 谢映 何立[1] 陈燕丽[1] LUO Yong-ming;ZENG Xing-ji;XIE Ying;HE Li;CHEN Yan-li(Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Remote Sensing Application and Validation Base of NSMC,Nanning 530022,China;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所/国家卫星气象中心遥感应用基础,南宁530022 [2]广西壮族自治区气象信息中心,南宁530022

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第23期9804-9810,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：广西自然科学基金(2020GXNSFAA238046);广西重点研发计划(桂科AB20159022)。

摘　　要：针对气象因子日变化波动大容易引起森林火险气象等级预报变动大这一问题,参考布龙-戴维斯方案森林火险气象预报模型的构建思路,利用2016—2020年广西1785个森林火灾样本和气象观测数据,建立森林火险气象指数模型(简称“模型”)。将气象观测数据输入模型,计算出每日森林火险气象监测指数,同时,将智能网格预报数据输入模型,计算出每日森林火险气象预报指数,然后利用加权算法将每日森林火险气象监测指数和每日森林火险气象预报指数进行融合计算,得到森林火险气象融合预报指数。利用2021年6月—2023年6月789个火灾样本,对林火险气象融合预报指数进行验证,结果表明:融合后未来1~7 d森林火险等级预报准确率从82%~56%,较融合前预报准确率提升1%~3%,基本满足目前广西森林火险气象等级预报业务应用。Aiming at the problem that the large daily fluctuation of meteorological factors was easy to cause the large change of forest fire weather grade forecast,the forest fire weather index model(referred to as the model)was established by referring to the idea of constructing the forest fire weather forecast model of Brown-Davis scheme,using 1785 forest fire samples and meteorological observation data in Guangxi from 2016 to 2020.The meteorological observation data was input into the model to calculate the daily forest fire risk meteorological monitoring index.Meanwhile,the intelligent grid forecast data was input into the model to calculate the daily forest fire risk meteorological forecast index.Then the weighted algorithm was used to integrate the daily forest fire risk meteorological monitoring index and the daily forest fire risk meteorological forecast index to obtain the forest fire risk meteorological fusion forecast index.Using 789 fire samples from June 2021 to June 2023,the forest fire weather fusion forecast index was verified.The results show that the prediction accuracy of forest fire danger grade in the next 1 to 7 days after the fusion is from 82%to 56%,which is 1%~3%higher than that before the fusion,and basically met the current application of forest fire weather classification forecast in Guangxi.

关 键 词：森林火险 观测与预报 数据融合 指数 模型 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]