2015-2022年银川市梅毒流行病学特征分析及发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Syphilis in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022

作　　者：李燕[1] 王彦海 李萍[1] 王光俊[1] 吴文军 LI Yan;WANG Yanhai;LI Ping;WANG Guangjun;WU Wenjun(Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Yinchuan,Yinchuan 750011,China)

机构地区：[1]银川市疾病预防控制中心,银川750011

出　　处：《宁夏医科大学学报》2024年第7期701-706,共6页Journal of Ningxia Medical University

基　　金：银川市科技计划项目(2022SF10)。

摘　　要：目的分析2015—2022年银川市梅毒发病情况及流行病学特征,并预测发病趋势,为提高梅毒防控质量提供科学参考依据。方法采用描述性分析的方法,描述2015—2022年银川市梅毒的流行病学特征,并用发病率建立灰色模型GM(1,1)预测。结果2015—2022年银川市共报告梅毒9455例,年均报告发病率为49.74/10万,年报告发病率呈先上升再下降趋势,主要为隐性梅毒(8039例,42.29/10万)。梅毒全年均有发病,无明显季节性。贺兰县报告发病率最高(65.04/10万),西夏区最低(37.32/10万)。报告发病男女性别比为1∶1.12,报告发病率女性高于男性。梅毒在各年龄段均有分布,主要集中在50岁及以上人群(4640例,102.80/10万),以待业人员(3330例,35.22%)、农民(2589例,27.38%)、离退人员(1003例,10.61%)为主要高发人群。灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2022—2025年梅毒发病率分别为29.27/10万(2022年实际报告发病率为29.94/10万)、29.59/10万、27.13/10万、24.07/10万,呈下降趋势。结论2015—2022年银川市梅毒发病总体呈先上升再下降趋势,60~<75岁人群、待业人员和农民为重点监测人群;应加强重点人群和性病门诊梅毒筛查工作,提高公众防病意识,持续深化医防融合,关注“四类”人群、落实“五早”措施,控制梅毒传播和蔓延。Objective To analyze the incidence and prevalence of syphilis in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022 and predict the incidence trend,thus providing a reference for scientific formulation of prevention and control measures of public interest.Methods Descriptive analysis was used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of syphilis in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022,and Grey Model(GM)(1,1)was used to forecast the incidence trend of syphilis.Results 9455 syphilis cases were reported in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022 with an average annual incidence of 49.74/100000.The annual report of incidence rate showed a trend of first rising and then falling.Most cases were latent syphilis(8039,42.29/100000).Syphilis was reported all year around,with no obvious seasonality.The incidence was highest in Helan County(65.04/100000)and the lowest in Xixia district(37.32/100000).The incidence in males was lower than that in females,with an reported ratio 1∶1.12.Cases contain all age groups,mainly for people aged 50 and above(4640,102.80/100000).Most cases were household,unemployed workers(3330,35.22%),farmers(2589,27.38%)and retired workers(1003,10.61%).The annual incidence of syphilis predicted by Grey Model(GM)(1,1)from 2022 to 2025 was 29.27/100000(the actual reported incidence rate is 29.94/100000),29.59/100000,27.13/100000 and 24.07/100000 respectively.Conclusion The incidence rate of syphilis in elderly people aged 50 years and above in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022 showed the tendency of going up firstly and going down secondly.The incidence was higher in females than in males.The majority of the patients were latent syphilis,and most of them were unemployed workers and farmers.Therefore,we should pay more attention to strengthening syphilis counseling and improve the testing and screening ability in key populations and regions.And it is also imperative to enhance the integration of medical care and prevention,pay attention to“four groups”of people,implement“five early”measures,raise public awareness of disease prevention,and cont

关 键 词：梅毒 流行病学特征 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R759.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]