气候变化对粮食生产韧性的影响——基于作物多样化的调节效应研究  

Impact of climate change on the resilience of food production:research of the moderating effect based on crop diversification

作　　者：陈有华[1,2] 曾梦晴 陈彬[3] CHEN Youhua;ZENG Mengqing;CHEN Bin(Collage of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China;Agricultural Industry Development Research Center,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642 [2]华南农业大学农业产业发展研究中心,广州510642 [3]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第16期6937-6951,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(72091511);国家自然科学一般项目(72273045);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD121)。

摘　　要：近年来气候灾害频发,给全球粮食生产系统造成了严重影响,气候变化对粮食生产韧性的冲击更是其中需重点关注的问题。据此,基于2000—2020年我国31个省份的面板数据,在剖析气候变化与粮食生产关系的基础上,揭示了气候变化对粮食生产韧性的影响机制。研究发现:首先,气候因子的变化,包括积温的上升以及降雨的亏缺或过量,对粮食生产韧性具有抑制作用;其次,作物多样性在该关系中具有重要的调节作用,具体表现为提高作物多样性程度缓解了积温上升对粮食生产韧性的负向影响,但对降雨的影响并不明显;第三,对主要粮食作物分类回归表明,积温上升对谷物作物具有负向影响,对豆类、薯类作物影响不明显,降雨亏损或过量则对谷物、豆类作物具有负向影响,对薯类作物影响不明显;降雨差异分析表明,降雨亏损对于粮食生产韧性的负向影响较大,降雨过量对粮食生产韧性的影响较不明显,且降雨过量可以缓解高温的不利影响;进一步分区域研究发现,气候变化对粮食主产区和非粮食主产区均有负向影响;但相比粮食主产区,提高作物多样性程度在非粮食主产区发挥的调节作用更强。为保障粮食生产安全,应提升气候监测能力,强化应对气候变化的适应韧性,且不同粮食产区应根据气候条件和土壤特点,因地制宜选择作物多样化程度以发挥区域优势,不同粮食产区应采取不同保障措施,应加强对粮食主产区的政策倾斜和资金投入,为粮食安全提供可靠的保障。The frequent occurrence of extreme climate disasters in recent years has caused serious impacts on the food production systems of various countries around the world,and the impact of climate change on the resilience of food production is one of the issues that needs to be further focused on.Thus,this study purposes to reveal the impact mechanism of climate changes on food production resilience based on the panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2020,and since analyzing the relationship between climate change and food production.The results show that:first,changes in climate factors,including increases in cumulative temperature and deficit or excess in precipitation,had an inhibitory effect on the resilience of food production.Second,crop diversity played an important moderating role in this relationship,as evidenced by the fact that the increased crop diversity mitigated the negative effect of increased temperature on food production resilience,but the moderating role in the impacts of rainfall on production resilience was not as pronounced.Third,classification regression of major cereal crops showed that the increase in accumulated temperature had a greater impact on the production resilience of cereal crops and a non⁃significant effect on the production resilience of bean crops and potato crops,while precipitation deficit or excess had a greater impact on the production resilience of cereal and bean crops and a non⁃significant effect on the production resilience of potato crops.Precipitation difference analyses indicated that precipitation deficit had a greater negative impact on food production resilience,the impact of excess rainfall on the resilience of food production was less pronounced and excess precipitation mitigated the adverse effects of high temperatures.Furthermore,this study indicates that climate change had a negative impact on both main food⁃producing areas and non⁃main food⁃producing areas;however,the moderating role played by crop diversity was stronger in the non⁃major g

关 键 词：气候变化 积温 降雨 粮食生产韧性 作物多样化 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]