劳动力流动、产业集聚与产业结构升级——基于面板向量自回归模型的实证分析  

Labor Flow,Industrial Agglomeration,and Industrial Structure Upgrading:An Empirical Analysis Based on the PVAR Model

作　　者：段钢 刘贤铤 Duan Gang;Liu Xianting(School of Economics,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming,Yunnan 650504)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学云南省民族研究所,云南昆明650504 [2]云南民族大学经济与管理学院(会计学院),云南昆明650504

出　　处：《重庆社会科学》2024年第8期5-28,共24页Chongqing Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“三权分置下生产要素流动对西南少数民族地区农户收入的影响研究”(18XJL012);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“一带一路”倡议对云南产业升级的作用机制与影响效应研究(2024Y446)。

摘　　要：为厘清劳动力流动、产业集聚与产业结构升级之间的关系,基于2008一2020年中国省际面板数据,运用系统GMM估计、PVAR模型方法对三者的动态影响关系进行了探究。结果显示,相较于南北地区的纵向差异,产业结构升级在东中西部地区上的横向差异更明显,且三者的联动效应具有横向区域异质性。首先,产业集聚整体上对劳动力流入存在短期识别机制。产业结构升级具有循环累积效应,且东部地区最强而西部地区最弱。其次,产业结构升级与产业集聚的互动强化机制仅表现在东部地区,中西部地区产业集聚不具备自我演化机制。再者,产业集聚的产业结构升级效应和劳动力流动的产业集聚效应,均在东部地区表现为长期促进作用,在中部地区为短期促进作用,在西部地区则为负向作用或效应不强烈。此外,产业结构升级和产业集聚都有利于中部地区劳动力的短期回流,而西部地区劳动力的回流效果则未具备稳定表现。To clarify the relationship between labor mobility,industrial agglomeration,and industrial structure upgrading,based on provincial panel data from 2008 to 2020 in China,the dynamic transmission relationship among the three was explored using system GMM estimation and PVAR model methods.The results show that compared to the vertical differences between the north and south,the horizontal differences in the eastern,central,and western regions of industrial structure upgrading are more significant,and the linkage effect of the three has regional heterogeneity.Firstly,there is a short-term recognition mechanism for labor inflows in industrial agglomeration as a whole.The upgrading of industrial structure has a cyclic cumulative effect,with the strongest in the eastern region and the weakest in the western region.Secondly,the interactive strengthening mechanism between industrial structure upgrading and industrial agglomeration is only manifested in the eastern region,while industrial agglomeration in the central and western regions does not have a self evolution mechanism.Furthermore,the industrial structure upgrading effect of industrial agglomeration and the industrial agglomeration effect of labor flow both have a long-term promoting effect in the eastern region,a short-term promoting effect in the central region,and a negative or weak effect in the western region.In addition,the upgrading of industrial structure and industrial agglomeration are conducive to the short-term return of labor in the central region,while the labor return effect in the western region has not shown a stable performance.

关 键 词：劳动力流动 产业集聚 产业结构升级 PVAR 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]