数值预报产品对西藏高原西南部降水的检验评估  

A test assessment of numerical forecast products for precipitation in the southwestern Tibetan plateau

作　　者：普次仁 赤曲 边巴卓嘎 张富华 巴桑次仁 旦增旺堆 Pu Ciren;Chiqu;Bianba Zhuoga;Zhang Fuhua;Basang Ciren;Danzeng Wangdui(XizangAutonomous RegionMeteorological Station,Lhasa 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象台,拉萨850000

出　　处：《西藏科技》2024年第8期37-42,共6页Xizang Science And Technology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0106);西藏自治区科技计划项目(XZ202101ZY0004G);西藏自治区科技计划项目(XZ202301ZY0056G)。

摘　　要：收集2019年1月1日至2020年2月20日西藏高原西南部7个常规气象站08时至次日08时和20时至次日20时降水量资料,以及该时间段内ECMWF_HR、GRAPES_GFS和GRAPES_MESO模式08时和20时起报的24小时累计降水量,采用传统二分类检验方法,对上述三家模式针对西藏高原西南部降水预报能力做了检验评估。结果发现:三种数值模式对西藏高原西南部一般性降水的预报能力有显著的季节差异,夏季一般性降水的TS评分明显高于其他季节,秋冬季则无明显的可预报性;数值预报西藏高原南部降水预报存在一定的地域差异性;各数值模式对小量级降水(<5 mm)的预报能力明显好于其他量级,>10 mm降水预报能力中ECMWF模式TS评分值大多数情况下大于其余数值模式,尤其在50 mm降水量级评分值远大于其他数值模式。因此ECMWF模式对于强度大持续时间长的过程预报中具有较高的参考依据。三种数值预报模式对夏季一般性降水预报能力明显优于其他季节,主要体现在低空报率和漏报率上。针对冬季也进行各模式的检验,三种数值预报模式对西藏高原南部冬季降水预报也存在一定的地域差异性,ECMWF和GRAPES_MESO模式预报稳定且有一定的参考价值。Based on the precipitation data of seven conventional meteorological stations in the southwestern part of the Tibetan Plateau from 8 to 8 o’clock and 20 to 20 o’clock from January 1,2019 to February 20,2020,as well as the 24-hour cumulative precipitation reported from 08 and 20 o’clock in the ECMWF_HR,GRAPES_GFS and GRAPES_MESO modes aduring the period,the precipitation forcasting ability of the above three modes for the southwestern Tibet Plateau was tested and evaluated by the traditional dichotomous test method.The results show that there are significant seasonal differences in the forecasting ability of the three numerical models for general precipitation in the southwestern part of the Tibetan Plateau that the TS score of general precipitation in summer is significantly higher than that in other seasons,while there is no obvious predictability in fall and winter;there are some regional differences in the precipitation forecast in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau;the prediction ability of each numerical model for small precipitation(<5 mm)is significantly better than that of other magnitudes,and the TS score of the ECMWF model is greater that that of other numerical models in most cases in the prediction ability of precipitation greater than 10mm,especially in the 50mm precipitation range,which is much higher than that of other numerical models;therefore,the ECMWF model has a high reference basis for the prediction of processes with high intensity and long duration.The ability of the three numerical prediction models to predict general precipitation in summer is significantly better than that of other seasons,which is mainly reflected in the low airborne rate and the underreporting rate.The three numerical prediction models also have some regional differences in the prediction of winter precipitation in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau,and the ECMWF and GRAPES_MESO models are stable and have certain reference value.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 西藏高原西南部 降水检验 TS评分 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]