日本会从“贸易立国”转向“投资立国”吗?  

Will Japan Shift from"Trade-driven"to"Investment-driven"?

作　　者：袁堂军[1] YUAN Tangjun(School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai,200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2024年第4期1-15,共15页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“全球产业链重构对全球经济治理体系的影响及中国应对研究”(21&ZD075)。

摘　　要：日本企业的生产活动向海外转移对日本的贸易结构产生了较大影响。日本企业参与全球价值链分工从上游参与开始,随当地采购的增加下游参与逐渐增加,因此基于常规贸易统计的贸易赤字并不意味着日本国际竞争力减弱。海外投资收益的持续增加推动了日本国民总收入增长,“投资立国”亦渐成雏形。然而,国内设备投资不足,股票和投资信托在日本家庭金融资产中占比较低,影响了海外投资收益的回流。强化国内企业总部功能、对外投资多元化、加快数字化转型等国内高附加值化等措施,有助于提高日本在国际分工中附加值份额,“贸易立国”仍将持续。积极提高居民的金融素养也可增强日本家庭和居民的投资意愿,促进海外投资收益回流并推动GDP增长。The relocation of Japanese companies'production activities overseas is having a greater impact on Japan's trade structure.Japanese companies'participation in GVCs begins with upstream participation,and with the increase in local procurement,downstream participation is also gradually increasing.Therefore,a trade deficit based on conventional trade statistics does not necessarily mean that Japan's international competitiveness has declined.The continued increase in OFDI returns is contributing to Japan's gross national income(GNI)growth.This means that the engine of Japan's economic growth is gradually taking shape as an investment-driven growth.However,the reluctance of domestic private capital investment and the low proportion of stocks and investment trusts in Japan's household financial assets makes it difficult for overseas investment profits to flow back into Japan.Strengthening domestic headquarters functions,diversifing foreign investment,and accelerating digital transformation will help Japan increase added value in GVCs.If so,Japan's economy will be able to maintain its trade-driven growth.On the other hand,the spread of financial literacy will increase the desire of Japanese households and residents to invest in Japanese companies,and making it possible for the return of overseas investment profits to lead to GDP growth.

关 键 词：国际收支 全球价值链 对外直接投资 贸易结构 国民总收入 

分 类 号：F133.13[经济管理—世界经济]