日本结束“负利率时代”的政策演变、实践效果与前景分析  

Policy Evolution,Practical Effect and Prospect Analysis of Ending"Negative Interest Rate Era"in Japan

作　　者：赵杨[1] 郭昭鹏 ZHAO YangA;GUO ZhaopengB(Northeast Asian Research Center,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China;Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2024年第4期42-54,共13页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“一战后日本的‘转向’与对外战略误判研究”(17JJD770010)。

摘　　要：日本央行解除负利率政策、上调短期政策利率是在对日本历史利率环境、国内经济环境以及国际环境等多方面进行考量的基础上提出的,是日本央行摆脱结构性通缩、维持经济复苏的重要政策手段。日本央行希望通过解除负利率政策使日本利率正常化,形成“工资-通胀”之间的良性循环,维持现有来之不易的景气局面。但是日本央行渐进式加息的“鸽派态度”加速了日元贬值,导致输入型通货膨胀水平提升,减弱了日本银行加息政策带来的正面效应。在日本央行加息周期与美联储降息周期叠加的状态下,日本央行的加息政策可能无法有效解决日本结构性通缩问题,甚至难以维持现有复苏局面。在未来,日本央行有进一步加息的可能,但将以渐进式方式调整,由于经济形势的复杂性和多变性,政策影响的不确定性将被进一步放大。The Bank of Japan's lifting of the negative interest rate policy and the upward adjustment of the short-term policy rate were proposed on the basis of reflection and research on various aspects of Japan's historical interest rate environment,the domestic economic environment and the international environment.It is an important policy tool for the Bank of Japan to get rid of structural deflation and maintain economic recovery.The Bank of Japan hopes that by lifting the negative interest rate policy,the normalization of interest rates in Japan,the formation of"wages-inflation"between the virtuous cycle,to maintain the existing hard-won boom situation.But the dovishness of the Bank of Japan's gradual rate hikes accelerated the depreciation of the yen,leading to a higher level of imported inflation and diminishing the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike policy.And in the BOJ rate hike cycle and the Fed rate cut cycle superimposed on the state,the BOJ's rate hike policy may not be able to effectively solve Japan's structural deflation problem,and even difficult to maintain the existing recovery.In the future,this paper believes that the Bank of Japan has the possibility of further interest rate hikes,but will adjust in a gradual manner,due to the complexity of the economic situation,the uncertainty of the policy impact will be further amplified.

关 键 词：日本 负利率 加息 量化宽松 短期利率政策 

分 类 号：F133.130[经济管理—世界经济]