关于中国威慑理论自主知识体系构建的回顾与思考  

Review and Reflection on the Construction of China’s Independent Knowledge System of Deterrence Theory

作　　者：江天骄 JIANG Tianjiao(Development Institute,Fudan University,Shanghai,200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学发展研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2024年第5期3-20,157,共19页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：上海市智库青年领军人才专项课题“中美博弈背景下新型网络数字安全风险挑战及其治理”(项目编号:2024TRC009)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国威慑理论的早期研究始于20世纪80年代。当时以翻译、引进和介绍美国的威慑理论为主,并形成了一系列教材和综述性研究成果。在21世纪的第一个十年里,相关研究逐步细化且与国际形势密切关联,出现了一批聚焦威慑与美国核战略、导弹防御以及防扩散机制的论著。但对于威慑理论本身的探索较为有限,仍然处于跟随美国经典威慑理论的状态。近年来,美国提出“重返大国竞争”,凸显威慑战略对国家安全和大国博弈的重大意义。现实环境促使中国学界加快威慑理论自主知识体系的构建,并取得了一系列进展。具体体现为在研究概念上变异求同,正本清源;在研究方法上变换视角,推陈出新;在研究议题上补齐短板,厚积薄发。今后一段时期,中国威慑理论自主知识体系的构建还应在祛魅经典、特殊性与普遍性相结合、理论与实践相结合的方向上不断取得突破,为回答好中美战略博弈向何处去贡献智慧和力量。The early research on deterrence theory in China began in the 1980s.At that time,the main focus was on translating and introducing the US deterrence theory,leading to a series of summarizing and teaching materials.In the first decade of the 21st century,relevant research gradually became more detailed and increasingly related to the international situation,with a batch of works centered on deterrence in general and US nuclear strategy,missile defense and non-proliferation regime in particular being written.However,the exploration of deterrence theory in China didn’t make any significant breakthroughs during that period.In recent years,with the United States returning to great power competition,the significance of deterrence strategy for national security and great power game has been highlighted again.The changing international environment is the direct cause for Chinese academia to accelerate their efforts to construct an independent knowledge system for deterrence theory.Notable progress has been made in the research of the theory in China.To be more specific,Chinese scholars in this field of research has delved deeper into the subject of nuclear deterrence,and made methodological and practical advances in addressing new research perspectives and topics.In the coming period,the construction of China’s independent knowledge system of deterrence theory should develop in the direction of demystifying classics,combining particularity with universality and integrating theory with practice,in order to contribute wisdom and strength to answering the question of where the Sino-US strategic game is headed.

关 键 词：威慑理论 中国自主知识体系 中美关系 战略安全 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] E712[政治法律—政治学]