1995—2020年我国天然橡胶生产时空变化分析  

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Changes in Natural Rubber Production in China from 1995 to 2020

作　　者：李海亮[1] 戴声佩[1,2] 朱鹏锦 郑倩[1] 禹萱 胡盈盈 LI Hailiang;DAI Shengpei;ZHU Pengjin;ZHENG Qian;YU Xuan;HU Yingying(Institute of Scientific and Technological Information,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Applied Research on Tropical Crop Information Technology of Hainan Province,Haikou,Hainan 571101,China;College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Hainan Normal University,Haikou,Hainan 571158,China;Guangxi Subtropical Crops Research Institute,Nanning,Guangxi 530001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所/海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室,海南海口571101 [2]海南师范大学地理与环境科学学院,海南海口571158 [3]广西壮族自治区亚热带作物研究所,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2024年第6期1-7,共7页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金(No.621RC628);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(No.1630072024010);海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室2023年度开放基金项目(No.ZDSYS-KFJJ-202308)。

摘　　要：天然橡胶是四大工业原料中唯一的可再生资源,是国防和工业建设不可缺少的战略资源,天然橡胶生产时空变化研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章基于长面板数据集,应用GIS技术综合分析了1995—2020年我国天然橡胶时空变化特征。结果表明,从时序变化看,1995—2020年我国天然橡胶的实有面积和开割面积呈波动中有增加的态势,当年定植面积呈先波动增加后波动减少的态势,干胶产量呈波动中有增加的态势,干胶单产呈小幅波动的态势;从空间变化看,我国天然橡胶生产主要分布于云南和海南,2020年云南和海南两省合计的实有面积占比达95.74%,云南于2011年超过海南成为全国橡胶林实有面积最大的省;从时空交汇来看,云南于2011年超过海南成为全国橡胶林实有面积最大的省,天然橡胶生产日益向云南和海南聚集,广东、广西和福建三省(区)的生产劣势更加突出;从生产重心来看,1995—2020年间我国天然橡胶生产重心明显向西北方向移动。Natural rubber is the only renewable resource among the four prime industrial raw materials and an indispensable strategic resource for national defense and industrial construction,and the study of spatial and temporal changes in the pro-duction of natural rubber has vital theoretical and practical significance.Based on a long panel dataset,GIS technology was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal change characteristics of natural rubber in China comprehensively from 1995 to 2020.The results show that,from the temporal perspective,from 1995 to 2020,China's natural rubber area and cutting area fluctu-ated with an increase in the trend,and the current year planting area fluctuated with an increase in the first fluctuation and then fluctuated with a decrease in the trend of dry rubber production fluctuating with an increase in the trend of dry rubber yield fluctuations;from the spatial perspective,China’s natural rubber production was mainly distributed in Yunnan and Hainan.In 2020,Yunnan and Hainan Provinces together accounted for 95.74%of the actual area,Yunnan in 2011,more than Hainan Province did to become the largest province(district)of the national rubber forest area.From the point of view of spatial and temporal convergence,Yunnan exceeded Hainan in 2011 to become the country’s largest province(region)with the actual area of rubber forests,natural rubber production is increasingly converging to Yunnan and Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,and Fu-jian provinces(autonomous regions),the production disadvantages more prominent From the perspective of the center of gravity of production,the center of gravity of China’s natural rubber production during the period of 1995 to 2020 moved significantly to the northwest.

关 键 词：中国热区 热带作物 天然橡胶 时空变化 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]