基于SWOT-AHP分析的文昌市椰子产业发展研究  

A Study on the Development of Coconut Industry in Wenchang City Based on SWOT-AHP Analysis

作　　者：邱苏晗 王挥[2] 弓淑芳 刘东 QIU Suhan;WANG Hui;GONG Shufang;LIU Dong(Rubber Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Haikou,Hainan 571101,China;Coconut Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Wenchang,Hainan 571339,China)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所,海南海口571101 [2]中国热带农业科学院椰子研究所,海南文昌571339

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2024年第6期98-104,共7页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：中国热带农业科学院基本科研业务费项目(No.1630022022004)。

摘　　要：椰子在海南省文昌市的种植历史悠久,是当地特色和支柱产业之一,对支撑地方经济发展具有重要作用。运用SWOT方法分析影响文昌市椰子产业发展的内外部因素,并运用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)将SWOT确定的影响因素作为指标层构建了层次结构模型。根据专家打分构建判断矩阵,将模型量化的指标依据重要性权重排序,并绘制战略发展四边形,判断战略定位。结果表明,文昌市椰子产业发展中机会>优势>威胁>劣势,战略中心位于开拓型策略区内。文昌市椰子产业目前应该采取积极的开拓性发展策略,充分利用外部机遇,发挥自身优势。Coconut cultivation has a long history in Wenchang City,Hainan Province.It is one of the local characteristics and pillar industries and plays a crucial role in supporting local economic development.This study employs the SWOT method to identify and analyze the factors influencing the development of the coconut industry in Wenchang City from multiple dimen-sions.Using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the factors determined by SWOT are treated as indicators,forming a hier-archical structure model.Based on expert ratings,a judgment matrix is constructed to quantify and rank the importance weights of the model's indicators.A strategic development quadrant is then drawn to determine strategic positioning.The re-sults indicate that in the development of the coconut industry in Wenchang City,opportunities>strengths>threats>weak-nesses,and the strategic focus lies within the expansion strategy.Wenchang City's coconut industry should currently adopt an active and exploratory development strategy,leveraging external opportunities and capitalizing on its strengths.

关 键 词：椰子 SWOT-AHP分析 产业发展 文昌市 

分 类 号：S667.4[农业科学—果树学]